Err...umm...so...we should definitely believe what epidemiology is telling us right now. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …
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"Believing" them to be predictions, I think, leaves people susceptible to distracting arguments if something turns out not to be as predicted or assumed. If anything, if we do things right, we will blow through those CFR assumptions. If we do things wrong, the other way.
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Yes, models are models i.e., based on parameters that only convey a slice of reality. They're also validated by the same empirical methods used by other realms of science. Again, the issue is the headline, which suggests that the models/science shouldn't be trusted.
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