There has been a lot of debate about how deadly #covid19 really is, with various estimates being bandied about, some as low as 0,04%. I was asked about this on German radio yesterday and I want to briefly share what I said: thread
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Yes, number of deaths (and cases) has gone up since the paper was written. But basic point of CFR between 1-2% remains. It’s just one data point to show what a plausible guesstimate looks like.
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Is CFR really that relevant? Lets say its 0.1 and same as flu. It has brought the world to its knees trying to limit it to 0.1.
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It's 12 (and some seriously ill have yet to recover) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess … Best estimate of where it could end that I've seen is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 …
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