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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      There has been a lot of debate about how deadly #covid19 really is, with various estimates being bandied about, some as low as 0,04%. I was asked about this on German radio yesterday and I want to briefly share what I said: thread

      30 replies 293 retweets 615 likes
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    2. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      Caveats first: Deadliness is not some fixed number for a pathogen. It depends on the age structure of the population for instance, on how many people have pre-existing conditions and on the quality of care for sick patients, how many ICU beds are available etc.

      4 replies 34 retweets 199 likes
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    3. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      CFR is often calculated by simply dividing number of deaths by number of cases, but that is a crude estimate, because we know that not every infection leads to a disease and not every disease is diagnosed and counted. We really want to know how likely infection will lead to death

      4 replies 25 retweets 147 likes
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    4. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      As with everything related to #SARSCoV2, a virus that we have barely known about for three months, there is a lot of uncertainty here. So let’s try and look very roughly at an upper and lower limit first.

      4 replies 36 retweets 154 likes
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    5. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      China has reported 82,240 cases and 3309 deaths. That gives you a case fatality rate of roughly 4%. No-one believes that China found all the cases given that we didn't even know the virus existed in the beginning and had no tests. So this can work as a rough upper limit.

      17 replies 49 retweets 200 likes
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    6. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      In Italy we have had 11,591 deaths. Let’s assume for a minute that every single person in the country has already been infected and no more deaths will come (obviously not true). Given there are 60 million people in Italy that would be CFR of 0,02%.

      13 replies 42 retweets 162 likes
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    7. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      So that’s something we can say with decent certainty: The real case fatality rate is somewhere between 0,02% and 4%. That’s a wide spread of course, a factor of 200. So where in that space are we likely to end up. We have some datasets to go on.

      6 replies 56 retweets 214 likes
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    8. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020

      Take the Princess Diamond: The ship had 3711 people on board and because of its special situation, quite a lot of testing was done. They found 619 infections with #covid19. 7 died. That’s about 1 percent. (again: very crude, older population etc.) Paper: https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 …

      18 replies 31 retweets 135 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 Mar 2020
      Replying to @kakape

      I think at least two, maybe three more died since the paper on DP. CFR calculations are hard for a new pandemic especially since it takes 4-8 weeks in many cases for the infection to play out.

      6:13 AM - 31 Mar 2020
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      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yes, number of deaths (and cases) has gone up since the paper was written. But basic point of CFR between 1-2% remains. It’s just one data point to show what a plausible guesstimate looks like.

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        1. GM‏ @lyell_creek 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @kakape

          Is CFR really that relevant? Lets say its 0.1 and same as flu. It has brought the world to its knees trying to limit it to 0.1.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Hilda Bastian, PhD‏ @hildabast 31 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @kakape

          It's 12 (and some seriously ill have yet to recover) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess … Best estimate of where it could end that I've seen is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2 …

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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