Anyone thinking regional quarantines will work needs to read this. It just worsens the spread as people flee, and you can't block all roads in a country the size of US. (Also, Italy, too, calamitously dragged its foot on pushing for universal mask wearing as early as possible).https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1243880262737563649 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Miranda Yaver, PhD
One, United States as a country isn't social-distancing anywhere at the level other countries that finally "bent-the-curve" have. Two, all the ones that successfully and dramatically suppressed first wave have: mass testing and universal mask wearing.https://twitter.com/mirandayaver/status/1244004886120816640 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Miranda Yaver, PhDVerified account @mirandayaverThe curve isn't bending at all in the US. That does NOT mean social distancing isn't working. It means it's taking time to see its effects. This is not the time to relax social distancing measures. It's the time to strengthen them. We need a nationwide#SafeAtHome order. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1243998677863145473 …12 replies 57 retweets 144 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
Japan did not - and still does not - have mass testing.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki
Yep. Japan isn't testing or properly isolating but has substantial mask wearing. So, I suspect 1-they have more cases than they acknowledge *but* they aren't Italy. Hospitals aren't overrun. It's actually a great example of importance of masks. Screw everything else up but masks!
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes - agree that they have more cases. But obviously they’ve somehow managed to control it enough that you’re not seeing waves of hospitalizations or unexplained deaths from respiratory infections.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep
I’m partial to the mask explanation for Japan, but even so it’s mysterious that their numbers are so low given how little they’ve done in terms of social distancing (school closures aside).
3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
I think their numbers aren't so low. Just that masks are slowing spread so they are managing.
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Replying to @zeynep @JamesSurowiecki
I think people are underestimating the impact of early social distancing practices and closures. This has caused a delay, but the curve is changing from linear to exponential in the past few days.
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