Yes. Many of the discussion in February of R0 and CFR were misguided.The problem was never really about that, though of course those matter but within a systems context. That's why all the flu comparisons were so inappropriate that they weren't even wrong.https://twitter.com/veropotes/status/1242444351265034242 …
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Look at the catastrophe unfolding in NYC. It will soon be perhaps the worst hit place globally, and it's not a coincidence that it's the center of exactly that kind of "what about the flu/don't panic" pundit-world/media. Yes it's hard to hear but this is not just a Trump failure.pic.twitter.com/5AJWK7evn4
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US gov't failures are terrible and obvious and well-covered. But we also had NYC mayor and officials tell people to chill and enjoy their gatherings up until recently. People could've acted to save themselves like Hong Kong—and that's where media matters.https://twitter.com/protanope/status/1243218618755645442 …
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I watched locally in February as people shared the "worry about the flu/don't panic" articles to keep doing very risky things: travel, conferences. My area is highly-educated. They trusted credible media. They avoided social media misinformation. And they thus endangered all.
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Look, I gave a few examples, and I'm sorry to pick on people but honestly, I had to give examples because otherwise people immediately forget their own tribe's failings but those were not rare or terrible compared to average. They're just average. But where's the reflection?
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Amount of effort people spent attacking one (yes sensationalist and stupid tweet but it was more right than those "what about the flu" pieces) compared with utter lack of reflection on, how on earth did we do that in February from traditional media/journalists is disconcerting.
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I apologize for harsh words but too much at stake. We went through the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 election and now this. My friends in media excel at investigating Trump/MAGA failures and new media/tech issues but have to break their own blue wall of silence.
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A terrible tragedy, in one of the greatest cities in the world.
We already have failing governmental institutions. We have some of the best journalists in the world but US traditional media also has big structural failings we must reckon with.https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1243204226211180544 …Show this thread -
What about the flu, simplistic CFR/R0 discussions, don't panic, don't overreact, travel bans don't work, this effects the elderly like flu... Heard that so much in February. Now children are being denied surgery.

This was predictable *and* predicted. https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1243204604382400513 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
Of course. This is true. Linking to another good piece to understand this failure. The warnings were seen as alarmism, and all alarmism was equated with disinformation. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html … https://twitter.com/scribandotcom/status/1243567094949498881 …
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Yeah but what about the flu? This is why its was never, ever appropriate to compare it with the flu. If you overwhelm the system more people will die of.. the flu. And strep throat. And everything else. And we knew this was coming early Feb by latest.
https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1243613770854928389 …Show this thread -
From February 1st, me trying to ask people to stop flu comparisons.
(Screenshot, I’m not encouraging pileups here). I’m not blaming individuals, this was a widespread sentiment.pic.twitter.com/3clGIJnVyM
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Please don’t pile on but do read this honest thread from a Vox journalist who warned her family but didn’t feel comfortable sounding the alarm publicly. The public message was to falsely reassure. This kind of reflection is important—and hard. Thank you!https://twitter.com/kelseytuoc/status/1243301678301888512 …
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Many weeks after my my mask-oped, finally seeing accurate pieces on masks. Why did it take so long? Why not before? My piece on media errors/complacency is part of the picture. Still too much herding and circling the wagons—and resistance to reflection.https://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1242639141873111041 …
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I wrote this in late February—there still wasn't any helpful pieces on why we needed to flatten the curve! Late February! Why not? (Can't find traditional media pieces before mine who explained the term—the phrase isn't mine, of course, it's well-known).https://twitter.com/writesaacson/status/1245336551292375040 …
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Yesterday, I commented on something tech, and someone was like, what do you have to do with tech? Lol! I've been pandemic writing for months. He had no idea I do tech. I didn't want to write "flatten the curve" or "we need masks" pieces. But people who should and could weren't.
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Forget reflection, I got weird pushback.
@NateSilver538 was so mad about me writing about the complacent/lagging media message that he caricatured my position beyond recognition and told me to "sit this one out". Yet, I'll say it again: there should be a reckoning & hasn't been.Show this thread -
Yes. For example, we are finally seeing more coverage of asymptomatic transmission, in context of finally admitting the argument for masks. We had many many peer-reviewed papers on asymptomatic and non-feverish, atypical clinical presentation since Jan 29. https://twitter.com/hhavrilesky/status/1245362927630090242 …
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More countries are switching to masks. Yeay! That's the good. If media had earlier dug into the science of masks and the experience of Asian countries that had been successful in containing this epidemic, we could have been here weeks ago. That's the bad.https://twitter.com/seaef/status/1245444646664355843 …
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This is great! California! By the way, would love for CA issue guidelines for correct use and sanitization. It's good to say masks *in addition to* other measures. But I have yet to see a single convincing study of "incorrect" use being worse than no mask.https://twitter.com/covidperspectiv/status/1245438129974083584 …
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My prediction is that, until vaccines, we will go through waves where we necessarily relax social isolation but masks will help a lot during those intermittent periods. How much is an empirical question but Japan—screwing up everything else but masks—suggests it is a great deal.
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Center for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford concludes that surgical masks are *as effective* as respirators for preventing infection in viral outbreaks. Fits Hong Kong's hospital practice. Asia was ahead on the science of this. Our experts were lagging. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-efficacy-of-standard-face-masks-compared-to-respirator-masks-in-preventing-covid-type-respiratory-illnesses-in-primary-care-staff/ …pic.twitter.com/DodJIwQWza
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Your daily irresponsible media failure: clickbait headline from
@washingtonpost claiming "masks were useless" in the 1918 flu epidemic based on no research or evidence but one historian saying so in a throwaway manner in a book. Shame on you,@elizamcgraw. Lives are at stake.pic.twitter.com/v4bi8QORUW
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So,
@elizamcgraw who normally writes about horses finds a casual sentence in a book that was more about how the 1918 epidemic spread and builds a piece around it titled masks "were useless" and it gets published on APRIL 2, 2020 in the middle of a pandemic in the@washingtonpost?Show this thread -
Science and fact-based advocacy has won this argument about masks. Even the United States is likely to join. There is no evidence of harms (it was all speculation), and if something actually comes up, we can address it then because the benefits are clear. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/opinion/trump-coronavirus-masks.html …pic.twitter.com/ZdqbLfpikr
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Some of this increase may well be due to hospitals being overloaded. As I tried to explain in the piece on top of this thread, and throughout late Jan and February on social media and in articles, *this* is why “but the flu” comparisons were so misplaced. https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1245852365464449025 …
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