This may be hard to hear but let me say it while things are still early. Maybe we'll get lucky with seasonality, immunity and antivirals. But a year or more of hardship is not implausible. "Flatten the curve" is about the immediate crisis. A difficult year will still be ahead.
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I don't think we'll run out of food or toilet paper. Much of that is just demand spikes which will resolve. But there will be all sorts of other challenges, some not yet on the public agenda. There are people who specialize in that kind of thinking and planning. We gotta adjust.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I know most everyone's focusing on the short-term, and hopefully helping to flatten the curve. Our response will shape the short-term outcomes. Remember, there is no fixed destiny here.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1232349689422532608 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepI don't think people understand the issue. There are no fixed numbers. There is no single R0 (infectiousness), no single CFR (case fatality rate), no single percent infected. It's all a Schrödinger's pandemic: to be settled when COVID-19 hits our infrastructure and our response.Show this thread2 replies 47 retweets 341 likesShow this thread -
Mentally speaking, false hope and "two weeks of lock-down and it will be better" doesn't work for me. Personally, I do better with realistic information, even if grim. In any case, please be easy on yourself. This will take more than a few weeks, or probably even a few months.
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So we have to start thinking for steps after the immediate moment. It'll be here soon! It was very frustrating being dismissed in late January and February by the "what about the flu" crowd. I'm now worried that people will think we're down just for a few weeks.
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Replying to @zeynep
Your exhortations in Feb made me a believer, & I in turn tried to convince others, including my students. I started social distancing & went into self-isolation —moving all my classes online— before many. Got some friends to follow suit. So your efforts served some purpose.
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Thank you! I have been getting emails etc. from places that shut down and prepared early because of the February sci-am article. Doing a part to help folks be ready is a good way to keep busy!
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That piece influenced us as well.
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