I don't think we'll run out of food or toilet paper. Much of that is just demand spikes which will resolve. But there will be all sorts of other challenges, some not yet on the public agenda. There are people who specialize in that kind of thinking and planning. We gotta adjust.
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I know most everyone's focusing on the short-term, and hopefully helping to flatten the curve. Our response will shape the short-term outcomes. Remember, there is no fixed destiny here.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1232349689422532608 …
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Mentally speaking, false hope and "two weeks of lock-down and it will be better" doesn't work for me. Personally, I do better with realistic information, even if grim. In any case, please be easy on yourself. This will take more than a few weeks, or probably even a few months.
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So we have to start thinking for steps after the immediate moment. It'll be here soon! It was very frustrating being dismissed in late January and February by the "what about the flu" crowd. I'm now worried that people will think we're down just for a few weeks.
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I'm saying all this partly because I'm afraid the short-term messaging will make the long-term harder. Managing expectations and realism is one key to resiliency! To end, here's a baby sea otter from Monterey Bay. (I love that place, looking forward to visiting again!)pic.twitter.com/i06O7wvYel
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This paper just got released in the UK, I recommend it (very well written): https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …
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And followed almost word for word by today's UK press briefing. Gives some serious perspective on the situation and on what we face for the next 18 months to two years. Was being hinted at earlier this week by
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it's going to be awful for people that live paycheck to paycheck... and awful is understating it
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