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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

    This may be hard to hear but let me say it while things are still early. Maybe we'll get lucky with seasonality, immunity and antivirals. But a year or more of hardship is not implausible. "Flatten the curve" is about the immediate crisis. A difficult year will still be ahead.

    2:30 PM - 16 Mar 2020
    • 859 Retweets
    • 4,146 Likes
    • mild Adrian Bischoff Jermaine Heath Paula Rogness Aviva Gabriel FVM Lance Lund Susan SheelaghG. 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
    40 replies 859 retweets 4,146 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

        I don't think we'll run out of food or toilet paper. Much of that is just demand spikes which will resolve. But there will be all sorts of other challenges, some not yet on the public agenda. There are people who specialize in that kind of thinking and planning. We gotta adjust.

        4 replies 51 retweets 551 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

        I know most everyone's focusing on the short-term, and hopefully helping to flatten the curve. Our response will shape the short-term outcomes. Remember, there is no fixed destiny here.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1232349689422532608 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
        I don't think people understand the issue. There are no fixed numbers. There is no single R0 (infectiousness), no single CFR (case fatality rate), no single percent infected. It's all a Schrödinger's pandemic: to be settled when COVID-19 hits our infrastructure and our response.
        Show this thread
        2 replies 47 retweets 341 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

        Mentally speaking, false hope and "two weeks of lock-down and it will be better" doesn't work for me. Personally, I do better with realistic information, even if grim. In any case, please be easy on yourself. This will take more than a few weeks, or probably even a few months.

        19 replies 164 retweets 967 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

        So we have to start thinking for steps after the immediate moment. It'll be here soon! It was very frustrating being dismissed in late January and February by the "what about the flu" crowd. I'm now worried that people will think we're down just for a few weeks.

        10 replies 66 retweets 435 likes
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      6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Mar 2020

        I'm saying all this partly because I'm afraid the short-term messaging will make the long-term harder. Managing expectations and realism is one key to resiliency! To end, here's a baby sea otter from Monterey Bay. (I love that place, looking forward to visiting again!)pic.twitter.com/i06O7wvYel

        12 replies 59 retweets 658 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Russ Garrett‏ @russss 16 Mar 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        This paper just got released in the UK, I recommend it (very well written): https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …

        2 replies 7 retweets 43 likes
      3. Vic‏ @VickySymonds 16 Mar 2020
        Replying to @russss @zeynep

        And followed almost word for word by today's UK press briefing. Gives some serious perspective on the situation and on what we face for the next 18 months to two years. Was being hinted at earlier this week by @BBCRadio4

        1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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      1. Dad Jokes Panda‏ @TrashPandaFTW 16 Mar 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        it's going to be awful for people that live paycheck to paycheck... and awful is understating it

        0 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
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