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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      The New York Times has managed to get their hands on the still-not-public CDC projections. One model estimates 160 to 214 million infected in the US, with 200,000 to 1.7 million dead. That’s middle range of the projections what I’m seeing. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html …pic.twitter.com/4wcFP92ghV

      71 replies 1,449 retweets 1,829 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      Today’s press conference felt like watching the waves recede on a crowded beach, with the tsunami warning blaring but with the resort management that wants to keep selling kitschy souvenirs playing loud music over it. It’s the worst I felt for the US in months of following this.

      13 replies 261 retweets 929 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      We could be on the lower or higher end of this—the one hopeful thing is how much decentralized action that’s happened just this week. It’s not enough but it’s something. The US has a lot of low density areas, lowish smoking rates, low pollution. These are the positives.

      2 replies 65 retweets 355 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      The negative is that we’re late. And we’re on our own. What an unnecessary tragedy.

      6 replies 82 retweets 410 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Cheri Rodriguez Jones

      This is an example of how differently we think. This is a model from two weeks ago assuming little mitigation, and that’s no comfort. Two more weeks passed since with some actions starting just the last few days. “It’s old” means worse for the projections.https://twitter.com/cheri_rod_jones/status/1238591014488748032 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Cheri Rodriguez Jones @cheri_rod_jones
      Replying to @idkdd_idk @zeynep
      I was scrolling through comments hoping that at least one person was going to show they read this. This is also based on an estimate from last month and doesn't account for what we're currently doing to limit the impact. THANK YOU.
      3:28 PM - 13 Mar 2020
      • 34 Retweets
      • 169 Likes
      • SM alexbrakefield Susie Steinkamp 😼🌊 Gotta Get Thru This Cray Z. Train Kimmie W bill nichols Elke Chris Fenlon
      3 replies 34 retweets 169 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

          Let me put it this way. Two weeks ago, CDC projected potentially 1 million dead Americans, and we still we don’t even have widespread testing. I don’t understand how this makes anyone feel better. The actions we’ve taken so far are good—but not what they were worth two weeks ago.

          6 replies 86 retweets 364 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

          Epidemiology is trying to outrun the wave. Every late day means you have to run even faster—much faster. Don’t self-soothe folks. We can still influence things, and we already are but people have to look realistically at the scenarios. Bending this curve requires so so much more.

          1 reply 77 retweets 272 likes
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        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted  ❌Lemzia  ⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

          The worst case scenario is exactly what we need to hear. We have started very late and done fairly little so far. Just started. This isn’t the stuff you count on random luck for.https://twitter.com/lemzia/status/1238600454507859968 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

           ❌Lemzia  ⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️ @lemzia
          Replying to @zeynep @whpresscorps
          That is most likely a "Worst case scenario" and SHOULD NOT be made Public! Your tweet is IRRESPONSIBLE and will only serve to CAUSE PANIC!!! SMFH.
          8 replies 39 retweets 277 likes
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        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

          Folks, look at Hubei, ~50 million. They had ~3000 deaths *after* putting everyone practically under house arrest and building new hospitals when they were about 40-100 deaths in. Just that ratio translates to about 20K deaths in the US. We barely closed schools just this week.

          9 replies 64 retweets 220 likes
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        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Mar 2020

          If we engaged in drastic action now and, hopefully, got lucky—sustained immunity after infection, seasonal denouement, quick response from existing antivirals—we'll still looking at a big event. Please, please don't relax simply because there's finally been some action this week.

          7 replies 56 retweets 210 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation
        1. mariska hargitaylor swift‏ @wspieler 13 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          My own back of envelope math says worst case is something like 14 million, but that would imply literally no steps to mitigate, and we've already seen some

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Cheri Rodriguez Jones‏ @cheri_rod_jones 13 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I work with data. I just know for better or worse when we have an incomplete data-set, it's difficult to look at this as anything more than an old prediction. It very likely will be worse. I hope for the sake of people like me (immune compromised) it is not.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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