Model of #schoolclosure for H1N1, striking population w school system & demography of Italy, indicates reactive *phased* policy of closing classes, then grades, then schools, might be nearly as effective as closing schools. I'm skeptical https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12879-016-1918-z … | @alainbarrat 12/
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Analysis of school closures in Japan during pandemic H1N1 flu in 2009 showed an impact: cumulative number of infected *students* decreased by 8% and maximum peak by 24% (flattening epidemic with NPI -- non-pharmaceutical interventions).
#schoolclosures https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144839 … 13/pic.twitter.com/svEi5hswgf
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School closures slow epidemics even if kids are not susceptible. But closures really help if kids can get sick. New analyses from China reveal that children can indeed get
#COVID19 (though most studies show at very low rates). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1 … via@cmyeaton 14/4 replies 44 retweets 139 likesShow this thread -
Here is the current (as of March 5, 2020) guidance from the
@CDCgov regarding school closures, which is *very* gently worded. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/guidance-for-schools.html … 15/11 replies 28 retweets 87 likesShow this thread -
Nicholas A. Christakis Retweeted Bloomberg
Example of reactive school closure when proactive would be better. If you plan to close the school when there is a case, and if there are already community-acquired cases in the epidemiologically relevant region around you, proactive closure is better https://twitter.com/business/status/1237140620134756358?s=21 … 16/https://twitter.com/business/status/1237140620134756358 …
Nicholas A. Christakis added,
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Nicholas A. Christakis Retweeted Paul Bieniasz
NYC infectious disease experts strongly endorse closing NYC schools in an open letter to the Mayor. https://twitter.com/paulbieniasz/status/1238188033452789767?s=21 … 17/
Nicholas A. Christakis added,
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Useful interactive map of school closures throughout the USA updated daily. Via
@educationweek h/t@pauldiperna https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/map-coronavirus-and-school-closures.html?override=web … 18/6 replies 18 retweets 82 likesShow this thread -
Using syndromic surveillance,
@mandl et al showed that, for influenza, it’s kids first (red), then adults (blue), then deaths from influenza—mostly in the elderly (black). This is one reason closing schools helps. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4128871/ …#schoolclosure 19/pic.twitter.com/rN60k6c0pm
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Replying to @NAChristakis @mandl
I think it makes sense but we still don’t know kid infectiousness for this, unlike flu, plus effects of possible shift to grandparent care. This one is tough.
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We know kids can carry high viral loads. And school closure works even when kids are not vectors, by keeping adults at home.
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Right, and i think that’s the preponderance of evidence but I think there’s a lot of uncertainty here unlike flu.
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There seems to be an assumption of mass grandparent childcare, but if we take this out (through grim and clear advice and financial support for one parent at home) then that can be largely solved. It just seems an unthought argument now.
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We should assume that our prior knowledge of viruses is applicable until proven otherwise. We have to make tough choices despite the uncertaintly here.
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