Today’s press conference felt like watching the waves recede on a crowded beach, with the tsunami warning blaring but with the resort management that wants to keep selling kitschy souvenirs playing loud music over it. It’s the worst I felt for the US in months of following this.
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We could be on the lower or higher end of this—the one hopeful thing is how much decentralized action that’s happened just this week. It’s not enough but it’s something. The US has a lot of low density areas, lowish smoking rates, low pollution. These are the positives.
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The negative is that we’re late. And we’re on our own. What an unnecessary tragedy.
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This is an example of how differently we think. This is a model from two weeks ago assuming little mitigation, and that’s no comfort. Two more weeks passed since with some actions starting just the last few days. “It’s old” means worse for the projections.https://twitter.com/cheri_rod_jones/status/1238591014488748032 …
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Let me put it this way. Two weeks ago, CDC projected potentially 1 million dead Americans, and we still we don’t even have widespread testing. I don’t understand how this makes anyone feel better. The actions we’ve taken so far are good—but not what they were worth two weeks ago.
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Epidemiology is trying to outrun the wave. Every late day means you have to run even faster—much faster. Don’t self-soothe folks. We can still influence things, and we already are but people have to look realistically at the scenarios. Bending this curve requires so so much more.
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The worst case scenario is exactly what we need to hear. We have started very late and done fairly little so far. Just started. This isn’t the stuff you count on random luck for.https://twitter.com/lemzia/status/1238600454507859968 …
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Folks, look at Hubei, ~50 million. They had ~3000 deaths *after* putting everyone practically under house arrest and building new hospitals when they were about 40-100 deaths in. Just that ratio translates to about 20K deaths in the US. We barely closed schools just this week.
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If we engaged in drastic action now and, hopefully, got lucky—sustained immunity after infection, seasonal denouement, quick response from existing antivirals—we'll still looking at a big event. Please, please don't relax simply because there's finally been some action this week.
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Do you understand these projections in light of containment in China?
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