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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      Now, what do we know about COVID19 incubation and latency periods? Like everything else with COVID19, which has scientists worldwide scrambling to understand from genetic, clinical, epidemiological, and sociological points of view, we cannot yet be 100% sure. However… 16/

      2 replies 19 retweets 130 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      A careful study of 468 infector-infected pairs found that 12% involved transmission *before* the infector was symptomatic. #mismatch #quarantineloophole https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452v2.full.pdf … 17/

      1 reply 74 retweets 212 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      Examination of 124 Wuhan cases with clear contact history showed incubation period of 5 days (range: 1-11 days). It found that 73% of secondary cases were infected *before* onset of symptoms in first case. It estimated the mismatch period to be 3 days. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.06.20031955v1.full.pdf … 18/

      2 replies 82 retweets 243 likes
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    4. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      A fine analysis of cases from China (N=135) & Singapore (N=93) found incubation was ~7-9 days. And there was pre-symptomatic transmission, with infection occurring on average 2.9 days (China) & 2.6 days (Singapore) before symptom onset in the infector https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983v1.full.pdf … 19/pic.twitter.com/XtNk0iUPpx

      5 replies 152 retweets 353 likes
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    5. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      Another analysis looking at 28 pairs of individuals suggests that "a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497v2 … 20/

      2 replies 29 retweets 125 likes
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    6. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      Study of 52 Chinese patients found incubation period to average 5 days, w typical range of 2-14 days. Such analyses yield the widespread recommendation of 14 day quarantine period (so as to be sure person is not infected, whether symptomatic or not). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.20018754v2.full.pdf … 21/

      1 reply 36 retweets 128 likes
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    7. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      A further wrinkle is that these numbers are averages. Even if the latent period were not shorter than the incubation period on average, it could still be so for some patients. Indeed, this may be one of the factors that can make some individuals super-spreaders. | @salathe 22/pic.twitter.com/IDxoTJys4G

      3 replies 26 retweets 136 likes
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    8. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      The likely existence of asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID19 does NOT mean we should not bother to test patients (e.g., to see if they are febrile) and ask them to self-isolate. Isolating carriers and patients is still essential! 23/

      4 replies 31 retweets 153 likes
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    9. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      It is wise to detect & sequester patients, as is widely done (China, Korea, Singapore) by offering widespread free testing using real-time (rRT-PCR) detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (detecting viral RNA) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/testing-laboratories.html … and (much easier for screening) fever checks. 24/

      4 replies 55 retweets 187 likes
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    10. Nicholas A. Christakis‏Verified account @NAChristakis 12 Mar 2020

      In sum, on average, COVID19 patients take about 7 days from exposure to SARS-CoV-2 to show symptoms (typical range 2-14 days), and a meaningful percentage of carriers can spread the disease for 2-4 days before they are symptomatic. We have our work cut out. 25/

      15 replies 256 retweets 492 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Mar 2020
      Replying to @NAChristakis

      This is also likely why places with the supply of masks and the culture of universal mask wearing are doing so much better compared to places where we have such a shortage that that we cannot advocate for masks for ordinary people—even healthcare workers don’t have enough.

      3:04 PM - 12 Mar 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 11 Likes
      • Recovering Vegan ᴰᴬᴴᴸᴵᴬ 🥳 🎡🎄 War Of Nutrition Sheree Bryant 𝑀𝒜𝒢𝒢𝐼𝐸 𝑅𝒪𝒮𝐸 Sean Tompkins MD, PhD *puts on flower crown, falls into a faerie circle* jemine guettinger
      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @NAChristakis

          It’s pretty clear telling people to wear masks when they know they’re sick doesn’t work with asymptomatic transmission. Plus dearth of testing! Let alone the stigma of having masks signal sick people, thus discouraging use.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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