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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      It's just a little more than two weeks from when Italy had *less* than a hundred confirmed COVID-19 cases, and not only have they imposed severe travel restrictions on the whole country, they just decided to shut down *all* stores except food and pharmacy. Why? Next tweet.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1236669939471319041 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Confirmed cases two weeks ago: Italy 62, Hong Kong 69, Taiwan 26, Iran 28. Hong Kong and Taiwan acted early with social distancing, hygiene, closures and near universal mask wearing. Their numbers hardly budged. Italy and Iran each have ~6000 cases and are locking down millions. pic.twitter.com/F63zPIHQnI
      Show this thread
      23 replies 1,047 retweets 1,544 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      While too much of mainstream media *and* Trump administration focused on the case fatality rate debates, one key fact got overlooked. The risk is systemic. There is no fixed fatality rate. Once your hospitals are overrun, mortality from everything will rise. As now, in Italy.

      18 replies 752 retweets 1,854 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      I'm never going to get over my anger over the flu comparisons but, as anyone who cared to know already knew since January/February, unlike the flu, COVID-19 causes *primary* pneumonia in a significant number of cases—thus requires ICU to survive. There are only so many ICU beds.

      22 replies 717 retweets 1,807 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      Many COVID-19 patients need to stay on mechanical ventilators as long as four weeks. The scientific community, including Chinese scientists once their government finally let them speak, have been publishing about all this with amazing speed. See article:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals …

      9 replies 551 retweets 963 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      So Italy, a well-off European country with 12th largest GDP in the world, is triaging ICU beds by likelihood of survival. It's called catastrophe medicine. There isn't enough to go around, and they have to choose who gets an ICU bed. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/ …

      21 replies 1,070 retweets 1,620 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      We were, of course, going to pay for lack of understanding of what systemic risk means—across the political spectrum. Just comes in different versions. (There are of course those who understood and chose their tax cuts but I'm angry enough at people who should have known better.)

      2 replies 94 retweets 513 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      Chinese government unleashed this pandemic in the first place with their lies and cover-up but once they realized what they themselves were facing, they responded to save their own country. Millions of people in China suffered greatly and gifted us months, and we wasted them.

      11 replies 201 retweets 734 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      "How much of a risk is this to me" is like asking how much of a risk an earthquake is to any one person. Sure, those who live in better houses built to code will do better *if* they are home during the quake, but even then, the systemic devastation of a disaster affects everyone.

      2 replies 265 retweets 832 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Mar 2020

      Political reporters who covered this like a competition of the narratives (flu or not!) or what the real case-fatality-ratio might be (as if it were single number to be uncovered!) all contributed to this moment. Unlike the climate crisis, this one is fast-moving so here we are.

      8 replies 172 retweets 777 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Mar 2020

      By the way, I hate to have to point this out but I'm seeing a lot of people self-soothe by pointing out fatality rates are high only for the elderly. I won't comment on the sentiment but: once the hospitals are overrun, fatality rates for everyone else will go up, too.

      8:09 AM - 12 Mar 2020
      • 91 Retweets
      • 317 Likes
      • Khyrberos Flark Joshua Uy MD 🧼 😷Rene 😷🧼 Goody RationalRomantic MinimalistMaximalist Scott Siegel Aslı Odman I(D)Fantastic
      10 replies 91 retweets 317 likes
        1. Nicholas Weaver‏Verified account @ncweaver 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          The only real self-soothing parts about the fatality rate for the not old is I can tell my parents if things do go down and they get sick, I can do homecare for them...

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Upandaway‏ @_up_and_away_ 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          That argument seems to be about the only thing that gets through to some people.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Fabio‏ @Fa_schieb 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I'm so frustrated, angry and hopeless right now. I see the German numbers, I see how we're exactly on the curve of Italy, yet schools aren't closed, events are called off too reluctantly. I don't have anything to hang on to, I feel like watching a catastrophe while paralysed.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. Daren‏ @ebongreen 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          "...fatality rates for everyone else will go up, too" May I add: for everything else – not just COVID. If you need any care more taxing than high-end first aid, you're SOL – so auto accidents, strokes, heart attacks, gunshot wounds, etc. all become more likely to kill you.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. I was a host body‏ @capeannsky 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          The doctors from Italy are reporting healthy people in their 30's crashing with ARDS. (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome). They are also reporting patients presenting with liver and kidney issues and GI issues.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. Joseph Jerome‏ @joejerome 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Thanks for this thread.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Todd R. Johnson‏ @johnsontoddr4 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          It seems like the "high fatality rates for the elderly only" is meant to calm people, except that a lot of us are elderly! It is a truly thoughtless statement if meant to calm.

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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        1. AW the Mage‏ @AmyWong01217912 12 Mar 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Thx 4 pointing that out. Thats also the main reason 4 the #HK medical professional's strike. They didnt strike 4 getting more gains for themselves but to pressure #carrielam govt to shutdown the borders to #🇨🇳, afraid that #wuhanvirus will be imported & crash the health system

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