Hong Kong had every reason to have an exponential epidemic (lots of travel from Wuhan/China) and yet has dramatically slowed the spread. Two deaths total. Probably: with memory of SARS, they responded quickly with closures, universal mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene. https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1235091542219448321 …
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Having so few known cases to many deaths is a terrible sign. If this were all there was, it would imply a case fatality ratio of 5%—higher than any place. In fact, we simply don't know where the cases are and how many and we are likely missing deaths, too.https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1236383802420686848 …
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Great point. They want to say the mortality rate is low, while at the same time saying no one is infected. If we take their numbers of infected as fact, that puts the mortality of the local cases a whopping 12.36%.
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I know he doesn’t do arithmetic but essentially he’s claiming an 8.5% death rate.
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Can’t import the virus if people are too poor to travel
End of conversation
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I like the part where he says “closing our borders” is the main reason coronavirus isnt in US
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Most of the deaths were caused in one Nursing home in Washington state from one infected person infecting many elderly people who then passed away.
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If you calculate how many cases there might be in the US based on 11 deaths so far (assuming a 3.4% death rate), that would be >300 cases. My guess it's a lot higher than that.
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I'd guess at 11 deaths, the infected are at least 1,000.
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