Hong Kong had every reason to have an exponential epidemic (lots of travel from Wuhan/China) and yet has dramatically slowed the spread. Two deaths total. Probably: with memory of SARS, they responded quickly with closures, universal mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene. https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1235091542219448321 …
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Yes, it's important to note that most of the swift actions (social isolation; universal mask wearing; hygiene) was the people of Hong Kong leaping into action—the HK government dragged its foot. (Hongkongers had experience with China's coverup of SARS.)https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1235489561624510466 …
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It's worse. We don't have enough masks even for health-care workers let alone regular people. Scandal, really. (It takes two seconds to figure out why "wear a mask only if you are sick" doesn't work and won't work as advice, but that's what we get told.).https://twitter.com/dominiksteiger/status/1235571127239561217 …
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While everyone is looking at Seattle, NYC has two cases (both now in intensive care) with no travel or known link to another case.https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1235559817135058948 …
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US has 11 known COVID-19 deaths and basically no real containment measures. I fetched the data for COVID-19 deaths in Hubei, China. Here's the chart, starting with 17 deaths on Jan 22 and with total lock-down as of January 20. We may well get a milder trajectory... or we may not.pic.twitter.com/pchI8aAibV
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Please note that the tragedy in Hubei isn't just the ~3,000 deaths or the massive human costs of the lockdown that has kept it down—with hospitals overwhelmed and every bed and ICU unit occupied, they certainly had significant spikes in mortality from everything else, too.
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Taiwan is another country with significant success in containing this coronavirus—a single death and only 44 known cases despite extensive travel from Wuhan/China. Here, too, experience with SARS and China's coverups helped—they leaped to action quickly. https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus …pic.twitter.com/hAXDTnRdZS
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Having 11 deaths to only 89 known local cases is actually terrible news, because it means that there is already a widespread outbreak that we don't see because we aren't testing—we are only noticing the deaths, and probably missing those too. This is what happened in Iran.pic.twitter.com/rXuxEEzWcn
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Having so few known cases to many deaths is a terrible sign. If this were all there was, it would imply a case fatality ratio of 5%—higher than any place. In fact, we simply don't know where the cases are and how many and we are likely missing deaths, too.https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1236383802420686848 …
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