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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      A follow up to Saturday's analysis of undetected #COVID19 transmission in Washington State. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426 … 1/11

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org . There are some enormous implications here. 1/9
      Show this thread
      43 replies 572 retweets 971 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      As before, the genomic data support a linkage between the case WA1 from Jan 19 and the case WA2 from Feb 24, both from Snohomish County. 2/11

      1 reply 36 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      This suggests that the case WA1 infected someone who was missed by surveillance due to mild symptoms and a transmission chain was initiated at this point in mid-Jan. 3/11

      4 replies 73 retweets 254 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      Because the case definition from mid-Jan until Feb 27 required direct travel from China, any of these subsequent cases in the transmission chain would not have been tested for #SARSCoV2. 4/11

      2 replies 46 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      Assuming an introduction into Snohomish County on Jan 15, Mike Famulare @IDMOD_ORG simulated onward transmission using consensus epidemiological parameters curated by the @MIDAS_Network (https://github.com/midas-network/COVID-19/tree/master/parameter_estimates/2019_novel_coronavirus …). 5/11

      3 replies 38 retweets 171 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      Running these simulations forward with a mean doubling time of 6.1 days, we estimate the number of current infections in this transmission chain on March 1 to be 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500. 6/11pic.twitter.com/Vm99N3x61s

      26 replies 305 retweets 656 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      In addition to this "bottom-up" approach, Mike used a "top-down" approach in which we accounted for the single positive screening result out of the number of samples screened to date along with census information. 7/11

      3 replies 25 retweets 165 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections. 8/11

      5 replies 63 retweets 249 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      We believe this particular transmission chain will have a foci in Snohomish County. We're working as fast as possible to understand extent of spread in the greater Seattle area. 9/11

      5 replies 56 retweets 270 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 2 Mar 2020

      Please consider this to be a preliminary analysis. We are actively working on this and will continue to update our numbers. 10/11

      7 replies 27 retweets 273 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Mar 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      This is again amazing work!

      2:21 PM - 2 Mar 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Jenifer Sunrise Winter Srinivas Inguva
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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