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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington … 2/9pic.twitter.com/LBH26A0AFC

      51 replies 782 retweets 2,348 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9

      63 replies 1,295 retweets 3,491 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. 4/9pic.twitter.com/Rb9N5uvgwg

      14 replies 407 retweets 1,799 likes
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    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. 5/9

      21 replies 288 retweets 1,647 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. 6/9

      100 replies 2,032 retweets 5,181 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. 7/9

      9 replies 284 retweets 1,751 likes
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    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. 8/9

      8 replies 244 retweets 1,533 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome. 9/9

      24 replies 295 retweets 2,252 likes
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    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.

      91 replies 704 retweets 2,938 likes
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    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Feb 2020

      One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another.

      73 replies 208 retweets 1,593 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Mar 2020
      Replying to @trvrb @seattleflustudy and

      This is amazing speed and openness!

      8:13 AM - 1 Mar 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 7 Likes
      • Tyler Vaughan 🕯 WrathofJan Nina Hatfield Citizen of the world WA Dept. of Health Dr. Cruz-Elena Sundquist
      0 replies 1 retweet 7 likes

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