Another thread on why flu comparisons are so misguided. Seasonal flu/pneumonia has a 0.014% death rate in the US, and still is a huge burden. SARS had a 10% fatality rate. A significant number of COVID-19 patients need hospitalization to survive. Where do you put millions?https://twitter.com/tony_zy/status/1229070516285329408 …
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There are many misplaced, disproportional panics for extremely rare events (stranger abduction). And then something real with a profound downside tail risk is staring at us, we go to "should we really panic"? We should do everything reasonable to avoid that tail risk. It's huge.
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On the gallows humor side, I guess that'd be one way to end the "Medicare for all" debate. Given EMTALA, which requires anyone showing up at an emergency room to be "stabilized and treated", and given the COVID-19 age profile, this might de facto lower Medicare age to 50 or so.
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The world was very, very lucky with containing SARS (as tragic as every death is) because of the disease profile—short incubation, consistent presentation with high fever, few if any cases of asymptomatic spread. This one is already way larger in spread and much more challenging.
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I guess, "It's just like a pandemic flu, somewhere between 1917 and 1968 in severity" would be somewhat correct?But you don't hear that phrase bandied about very often.
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Yep, every virus strain is different.
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Also factor how quickly it spreads compared with flu.
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I'm having a very hard time wrapping my mind around a 100-fold difference in fatality rate based on little more than better medical care. Are infected Princess Cruise passengers even being hospitalized at a 3% rate?
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