Latest large-scale retrospective shows fatality rates of about 3% in overwhelmed Hubei and 0.04% in rest of China. This, with speed of infection held at bay with draconian measures *and* intensive medical care outside of Hubei. Mentioning the flu is not a serious response.
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There are many misplaced, disproportional panics for extremely rare events (stranger abduction). And then something real with a profound downside tail risk is staring at us, we go to "should we really panic"? We should do everything reasonable to avoid that tail risk. It's huge.
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On the gallows humor side, I guess that'd be one way to end the "Medicare for all" debate. Given EMTALA, which requires anyone showing up at an emergency room to be "stabilized and treated", and given the COVID-19 age profile, this might de facto lower Medicare age to 50 or so.
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The world was very, very lucky with containing SARS (as tragic as every death is) because of the disease profile—short incubation, consistent presentation with high fever, few if any cases of asymptomatic spread. This one is already way larger in spread and much more challenging.
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I wrote this several days ago.https://twitter.com/ml8_ml8/status/1228406298821222401 …
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Well stated. I think a valid connection between the two is that we will be worse off dealing with both at the same time, as individuals, families, or communities. Existing gaps in flu prevention make us worse off if we need to fight COVID.
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COVID will end up a human tragedy, but I do think it will play out differently across the world. The virus binds to ACE2 proteins as an access point, and ACE2 bias to smokers lung tissue is HUGE - which explains bias in China CFR/severe number to older men, where smoking is high
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Data shows 60% of Chinese men smoke vs 3% of women, and early case data suggests CFR for women is closer in range to the flu. Likewise, there is a reported small ACE2 bias in Asians as well. All-in-all China could be a worst-case vs model for the pandemic.
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US 2017-2018 seasonal flu death rate was 0.1%, not 0.014%. Nearly a million were hospitalized. Get your facts straight and stop spreading misinformation. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm …
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