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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2020

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tony Lin 林東尼

    Another thread on why flu comparisons are so misguided. Seasonal flu/pneumonia has a 0.014% death rate in the US, and still is a huge burden. SARS had a 10% fatality rate. A significant number of COVID-19 patients need hospitalization to survive. Where do you put millions?https://twitter.com/tony_zy/status/1229070516285329408 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Tony Lin 林東尼Verified account @tony_zy
    ...also how China is mobilized to address this problem. The popular comparison between flu and coronavirus is problematic and incorrect. And Americans shouldn’t spend time focusing on “is the coronavirus that bad?”, instead, the real questions are:
    Show this thread
    7:00 AM - 19 Feb 2020
    • 77 Retweets
    • 154 Likes
    • Nā•thən Wī•nənt 💉💉💉 Christina Meetoo David Jackson Prisse Könönen Delft Solutions ⬢ Jens Wiechers ⬡ (he/him; prefers they/them) President Joe 🏴‍☠️🌊 Kathleen O'Neill kateneuropsych Dr. Kate Shaw MA/MS/PsyD Auntie Fa
    5 replies 77 retweets 154 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2020

        Latest large-scale retrospective shows fatality rates of about 3% in overwhelmed Hubei and 0.04% in rest of China. This, with speed of infection held at bay with draconian measures *and* intensive medical care outside of Hubei. Mentioning the flu is not a serious response.

        4 replies 11 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2020

        There are many misplaced, disproportional panics for extremely rare events (stranger abduction). And then something real with a profound downside tail risk is staring at us, we go to "should we really panic"? We should do everything reasonable to avoid that tail risk. It's huge.

        1 reply 11 retweets 62 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2020

        On the gallows humor side, I guess that'd be one way to end the "Medicare for all" debate. Given EMTALA, which requires anyone showing up at an emergency room to be "stabilized and treated", and given the COVID-19 age profile, this might de facto lower Medicare age to 50 or so.

        3 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2020

        The world was very, very lucky with containing SARS (as tragic as every death is) because of the disease profile—short incubation, consistent presentation with high fever, few if any cases of asymptomatic spread. This one is already way larger in spread and much more challenging.

        0 replies 6 retweets 25 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. ml8_ml8‏ @ml8_ml8 19 Feb 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        ml8_ml8 Retweeted ml8_ml8

        I wrote this several days ago.https://twitter.com/ml8_ml8/status/1228406298821222401 …

        ml8_ml8 added,

        ml8_ml8 @ml8_ml8
        Health care systems in the US are not even close to being prepared for this. No one seems to appreciate how fast this could happen. Hospitals and local governments should be preparing on a panic basis, then they can chill. Worst case is utter lack of prep or planning. https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1228335868202672129 …
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Jennifer M. Miller, PhD‏ @jmm140 19 Feb 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @JohnLaprise

        Well stated. I think a valid connection between the two is that we will be worse off dealing with both at the same time, as individuals, families, or communities. Existing gaps in flu prevention make us worse off if we need to fight COVID.

        0 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Listen occasionally, you may learn something...‏ @LotaInsLotaOuts 19 Feb 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        COVID will end up a human tragedy, but I do think it will play out differently across the world. The virus binds to ACE2 proteins as an access point, and ACE2 bias to smokers lung tissue is HUGE - which explains bias in China CFR/severe number to older men, where smoking is high

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Listen occasionally, you may learn something...‏ @LotaInsLotaOuts 19 Feb 2020
        Replying to @LotaInsLotaOuts @zeynep

        Data shows 60% of Chinese men smoke vs 3% of women, and early case data suggests CFR for women is closer in range to the flu. Likewise, there is a reported small ACE2 bias in Asians as well. All-in-all China could be a worst-case vs model for the pandemic.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Joe‏ @twitskeptic 19 Feb 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        US 2017-2018 seasonal flu death rate was 0.1%, not 0.014%. Nearly a million were hospitalized. Get your facts straight and stop spreading misinformation. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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