Yes, the “known” vs. “emerging” is a thing. But here’s the thing about emerging — those numbers, 50-60%, ~1%, are also HIGHLY speculative at this point. IOW that “if” in your alarming tweet is doing WAY too much work.
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My point is that the “downside threat” is FAR LESS CERTAIN either way. Because emerging. It’s totally irresponsible to throw out narrow ranges like “50-60%” and “~1%”. Try more like “0.5-40%” and “0.01-3%”. Note that the U.S. infection rate for the WORST KNOWN PANDEMIC was 28%.
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