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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Feb 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Josh Jordan

      Following impeachment, President Trump hits his highest popularity rating (Gallup poll). President Clinton, too, had a spike in his popularity after impeachment. The outlier to that pattern is Nixon whose impeachment was long, long time ago in a drastically different setting.https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1224715109584506880 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Josh JordanVerified account @NumbersMuncher
      Gallup - Presidential job approval at this point in the first term: Carter 58 Reagan 55 HW Bush 47 Clinton 52 W Bush 49 Obama 45 Trump 49 Trump is now ahead of Obama, tied with W and only 3 behind Clinton with 9 months to go until the election. And all three won reelection.
      5 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Feb 2020

      There the "the right thing to do" approach and the question of whether it would inevitably help him given he was obviously going to be acquitted. Was it the way it was handled? Choice of topic? That's an abstract discussion. He is now more likely to be re-elected. That's reality.

      4 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Feb 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Anand Mehta

      Fair enough. Let's say he didn't lose any ground from the impeachment proceedings. Since he was obviously going to be acquitted, the only threat to him was that: losing ground. He did not. His campaign manager should be happy with that. It's over.https://twitter.com/anandmehtanyc/status/1225427530565459969 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Anand Mehta @anandsequitur
      Replying to @zeynep
      That's only true if you put all of your eggs into one poll. He's as popular today as he was on Dec 3 if you look at the polling average. That was a decent polling number for him but 43.7% is still really low for incumbents. And no, it doesn't beat Obama. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo … pic.twitter.com/hxABsW5wyA
      6:38 AM - 6 Feb 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 3 Likes
      • MrG JulioCCarreroP Disgruntled باكستاني 🎃 ⊃∪∩⪽ 🌘 givemepie phred Read Kraus
      6 replies 3 retweets 3 likes
        1. Anand Mehta‏ @anandsequitur 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Sure. But it also means he didn't gain much ground in the early months of his election year. Those months are thought of as monumentally important in establishing a baseline for re-election. That's a bad thing. I'm not saying impeachment was a W or L for Ds. Its complicated.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Phishing For Better Opinions‏ @weed4pundits 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          We kinda need different metrics for Trump. If you engage with someone privately in my area, they'll talk about how they disapprove of Trump. Yet, those same people are in the "approve" category when they want their voice public. Tribalism is weird shit.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. TBashII‏ @RukhnamaLives 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I don't think "losing ground" was the point at all. It was to lay out the case to the public. He did lose ground DURING the impeachment, as witness after witness exposed his corruption.

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        1. voting AGAINST the 6th great extinction‏ @afreakingvortex 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Bernies gonna win, we would be extremely honored if you volunteered some ma’am

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Jason Roth‏ @J_M_Roth 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          But it's also 4 months of failing to gain ground (per the average). DJT's polling average, in this economy, is that of someone who'll lose. He needs it to rise, but in the 4+ months since the inquiry began, among voters it went from -8 to -8.3.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jason Roth‏ @J_M_Roth 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @J_M_Roth @zeynep

          He had 13 months to improve; now he has 9 months, and he needs to improve a bit more. On a purely strategic basis—as far as we can see right now—it was bad for him.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. kurt squire‏ @ksquire 6 Feb 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          @TPM made the case that with numbers this small it could be response bias. Will be interesting to see what happens when House turns to financials. Reminds me a little of Bush around 2004.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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