Significant #nCoV2019 paper *just* out at @NEJM. Bad news, which we kinda knew, is there is sustained human-to-human transmission. Goodish news: R0 estimate is 2.2, lower than SARS. But won't be easier to contain because 2020 is more connected than 2003. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 …
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@NEJM paper finds mean incubation to be 5.2 days, 95% under 12 days. Also human-to-human transmission seems to be through *close* contact. We know that most deaths are elderly or people with significant comorbidities. With an urgent enormous effort, this could be contained.2 replies 45 retweets 94 likesShow this thread -
Yes all this is preliminary, and there is still under-diagnosis going on due to test availability etc. And these %@^$#!s mutate. That said, for all of us, washing hands often and not touching one's face and self-isolating if feverish are the sensible steps—as in any flu season.
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Finally,
#nCoV2019 will get to places with much poorer healthcare systems. Once again, global health-care equity is an existential need, besides being a basic human right. There is no way to get through this without providing resources for the whole world. It's 2020. One planet.4 replies 45 retweets 129 likesShow this thread -
So far,
#nCoV2019 has some features more favorable than SARS (no super-spreaders identified yet etc.) BUT@NEJM paper says some have atypical presentation: gastro symptoms or mild clinical presentation. (SARS came with high fever). Translation: we need maybe millions of tests.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted The New York Times
zeynep tufekci added,
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