IBM's dominance was, for sure, significant and it declined but it was an enterprise only company and already stilted by the nineties. (I worked for it at one point!) Never with 2 billion ordinary users. Weak network effects. And even 40 years later, *still* #34 on Fortune 500.
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Replying to @zeynep @benedictevans
It's possible that Facebook/Google with eventually be upended due to Venice/trade routes type shifts, but unlikely anytime soon (imagine IBM being allowed to buy up everyone else the way Facebook/Google/Apple do). The strongest examples took decades to slowly shift in importance.
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Replying to @zeynep
Apple has never made an acquisition that changed its market power. Even NeXT and PA Semi can't be so described. IBM bought Lotus and many other things. And the shifts to the web and then mobile happened very quickly.
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Replying to @benedictevans
Shift to mobile and web happened, and yes quickly, and Microsoft is still the largest company in the world (tweet one). The big ones are buying both potential competitors but also all the talent. Apple's acquistions are indeed earlier, drying up talent.https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-14-or-more-mystery-acquisitions-6-months-2019-5 …
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Replying to @zeynep @benedictevans
Apple is sitting on, what, 200+ billion cash? It can acquihire almost anyone for a long, long time. My point isn't that shifts don't happen but when they do, they are slow, not as consequential as it seems plus this is not a very competitive ecology right now re:the big ones.
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Replying to @zeynep
You could say the same of Microsoft, or Yahoo, or indeed IBM. IBM had the cash to buy Microsoft. Cash isn't power when there are fundamental structural changes happening
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Replying to @benedictevans
I'm guessing that if IBM had tried to buy Microsoft back-when, it might have actually been blocked. Meanwhile, Facebook shows cash can be real power when fundamental structural changes are happening—Instagram & WhatsApp. (Again, Microsoft hasn't faded. There are just more lanes).
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Replying to @alexstamos @zeynep
Also, both Ebay and Microsoft bought Skype. How did that turn out?
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I think we agree it's a great environment for founders & people with scarce talents, and that it makes sense for them to sell, sometimes for billions, rather than a futile run at a challenge (or they can be Snapped, aka copy the innovation and crush company via network effects).
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