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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 11 May 2019

      Tech monopolies tend not to fall like Rome. They fall like Venice. They’re still there, and no-one actually invades them, but the trade routes moved, the things that gave them power and wealth stop mattering, and they become just another city, and then a backwater.

      88 replies 1,127 retweets 4,443 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @benedictevans

      Microsoft is currently the world's *largest* company by market capitalization, and that is not at all independent of its never really dismantled dominance over Windows/Office. There are indeed more places to monopolize but that's not same as routes moving—a zero-sum transaction.pic.twitter.com/drjjODFFlK

      4 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
    3. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 11 May 2019
      Replying to @zeynep

      Look at IBM's share price in the years after 1995. A good business doing well for shareholders is not AT ALL the same as market dominance. Control of the PC has been irrelevant for a decade. Arguably two decades.

      5 replies 5 retweets 75 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @benedictevans

      IBM's dominance was, for sure, significant and it declined but it was an enterprise only company and already stilted by the nineties. (I worked for it at one point!) Never with 2 billion ordinary users. Weak network effects. And even 40 years later, *still* #34 on Fortune 500.

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @zeynep @benedictevans

      It's possible that Facebook/Google with eventually be upended due to Venice/trade routes type shifts, but unlikely anytime soon (imagine IBM being allowed to buy up everyone else the way Facebook/Google/Apple do). The strongest examples took decades to slowly shift in importance.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
    6. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 11 May 2019
      Replying to @zeynep

      Apple has never made an acquisition that changed its market power. Even NeXT and PA Semi can't be so described. IBM bought Lotus and many other things. And the shifts to the web and then mobile happened very quickly.

      2 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @benedictevans

      Shift to mobile and web happened, and yes quickly, and Microsoft is still the largest company in the world (tweet one). The big ones are buying both potential competitors but also all the talent. Apple's acquistions are indeed earlier, drying up talent.https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-14-or-more-mystery-acquisitions-6-months-2019-5 …

      2 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @zeynep @benedictevans

      Apple is sitting on, what, 200+ billion cash? It can acquihire almost anyone for a long, long time. My point isn't that shifts don't happen but when they do, they are slow, not as consequential as it seems plus this is not a very competitive ecology right now re:the big ones.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 11 May 2019
      Replying to @zeynep

      You could say the same of Microsoft, or Yahoo, or indeed IBM. IBM had the cash to buy Microsoft. Cash isn't power when there are fundamental structural changes happening

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
      Replying to @benedictevans

      I'm guessing that if IBM had tried to buy Microsoft back-when, it might have actually been blocked. Meanwhile, Facebook shows cash can be real power when fundamental structural changes are happening—Instagram & WhatsApp. (Again, Microsoft hasn't faded. There are just more lanes).

      12:58 PM - 11 May 2019
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      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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        2. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 11 May 2019
          Replying to @alexstamos @zeynep

          Also, both Ebay and Microsoft bought Skype. How did that turn out?

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 May 2019
          Replying to @zeynep @benedictevans

          Also, the argument isn't that every big company is eternal. It's that they can really entrench themselves for decades and decades, especially in an environment of weak enforcement and network effects—plus we're talking cash reserves in 8-9 digits.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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