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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Sol Messing‏ @SolomonMg 23 Dec 2018

      Sol Messing Retweeted Nate Silver

      I wonder if it’s fair to start asking questions about how forecasting influenced the 2016 election: https://solomonmg.github.io/projects/1_project/ …https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1076521277756788736 …

      Sol Messing added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      I wonder it's fair to start asking academics at Ivy League universities with giant endowments to start paying for our datasets instead of publishing a ton of stuff it takes hundreds of hours to organize for free. https://twitter.com/ylelkes/status/1076471934840422400 …
      8 replies 33 retweets 149 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Benjohn Barnes‏ @benjohnbarnes 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @SolomonMg @zeynep

      As an outside observer from UK, who followed the 2016 polling from 538 and @NateSilver538's commentary, it was absolutely clear to me they believed Clinton was far from certain to win. To imply otherwise is disingenuous at best.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Benjohn Barnes‏ @benjohnbarnes 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @benjohnbarnes @SolomonMg and

      I believe 538's probability of a Trump win prior to election day was about 33%. That's 1 Trump win for every 2 Clinton wins. @NateSilver538 had consistently said he felt there were factors that probably made Trump more likely than the models were predicting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Benjohn Barnes‏ @benjohnbarnes 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @benjohnbarnes @SolomonMg and

      I've seen this revisionism about their predictions and record a few times. I believe they gave a solid and extensive warning of what was and could happen. Who ever is to blame, in my view, 538 aren't among them.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Sol Messing‏ @SolomonMg 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @benjohnbarnes @zeynep @NateSilver538

      I don’t disagree with any of this. Our work isn’t about 538 being overly certain. It’s about the certainty everyone else took away from the forecasting that became popular after 538’s success

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Benjohn Barnes‏ @benjohnbarnes 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @SolomonMg @zeynep @NateSilver538

      I wonder if people just don't understand probabilities (at least as they apply to decisive events like this, rather than mixes). I talked to people that said "they only gave Trump a 33% chance", seemingly unaware that 33% is 1 time in 3.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Sol Messing‏ @SolomonMg 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @benjohnbarnes @zeynep @NateSilver538

      I suspect there’s some truth to that. There’s some research we cite that provides some evidence in the original link https://solomonmg.github.io/projects/1_project/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @SolomonMg @benjohnbarnes @NateSilver538

      I've had endless threads about this. People don't know how to interpret probability models, after a lifetime of poll results. 75-80% looks like a huge landslide, and things like extra decimal digit etc. didn't help. Also the visual dominates. Visual looked like a landslide.

      2 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @SolomonMg and

      I read the text and footnotes—few previous datapoints with big gaps between (every four years) to base a model on, and one in three is huge odds. Almost nobody reads footnotes. Even 60/40 looks like a landslide because we have a lifetime of being trained to read polls, not odds.

      2:37 PM - 23 Dec 2018
      • 1 Retweet
      • 8 Likes
      • Iacopo Poli Todd Cat Manning (🐅,✨) Eileen Clancy Michael Sonsino Sondheim (Z”L) Stan Account Jeff M Sol Messing
      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @SolomonMg and

          So the issue is how things are interpreted and what can be done to not have them be interpreted erroneously and how prediction, in general and however presented, affects behavior. All important.

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        3. Cat Manning ( 🐅, ✨)‏ @catacalypto 23 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @SolomonMg and

          I’m coming from a different background, but I’m fascinated by this because you see it in game design as well: many people *do not understand* how they can fail a check with 90% odds of success twice in a row. Curious if there’s a solve that would teach model literacy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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