I wonder if it’s fair to start asking questions about how forecasting influenced the 2016 election: https://solomonmg.github.io/projects/1_project/ …https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1076521277756788736 …
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So the issue is how things are interpreted and what can be done to not have them be interpreted erroneously and how prediction, in general and however presented, affects behavior. All important.
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I’m coming from a different background, but I’m fascinated by this because you see it in game design as well: many people *do not understand* how they can fail a check with 90% odds of success twice in a row. Curious if there’s a solve that would teach model literacy.
End of conversation
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