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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      Social media data may have natural experiments (when Facebook was testing what kind of news to promote: were there comparable groups we can test effects on?). Interaction between liking an RU-page and downstreat impact. Then impact of downgrading of content from liked pages. etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      (Lessened likelihood of voting: among left side of the spectrum, obviously). etc. There is no shortage of stuff to look for.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      That's not where you and I have a difference of opinion. We're arguing about the scale and magnitude of the impacts. I think the magnitude was small, maybe very small. You've claimed it was medium or large. I'm asking you to propose a way to test whether it was small or large.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      So, to define small or big. It's a close election. I'd say if plausibly close to winner-loser difference, that's important enough. Still would be small in terms of scale. FB has impressive research published in Nature on voter-encouragement, do it in reverse!

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      OK, then I'd say that the Russian shitposts are not enough to have changed the outcome (which would have required a net shift of ~0.8 percentage points toward Clinton). I'd also consider that to be a pretty *large* effect, as these things go.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      Brendan and I disagree on how applicable it is but I especially like the follow-up to the Nature paper. This is an impressive example of what you can do with a well-designed study and Facebook data. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173851 …

      2 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      I spent much of 2016 embedded in these networks online, because I had a hunch (lol, from Turkey). I didn't collect big data systematically because I had a hunch and was busy but I watched this. I think people are underestimating how widespread and viral Russian shitposts went. +

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      That said, the most useful part of this for me is identifying the mechanism which shows how broken US politics has become. So that's the correct focus, and I think RU outrage threatens to overshadow the fact that the patient is quite ill.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    9. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      I'm not sure if we're agreeing or disagreeing, but I think the focus on the Russian shitposts distracts from more fruitful and interesting research on the effects of social media.

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      I actually agree with this! I think there is too much focus on Russia. I believe that it's plausible that "but for" RU intervention, a different outcome is possible. I also believe that it is one among many such factors, and probably not the biggest one (hi, Comey). +

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      All that said, we seem to disagree: how impactful it was. On the one hand, swinging a close election may well change history bigly. OTOH, yep close election. The mechanisms RU used are more important long-term–barring, you know, a nuclear war in the next two years and such.🤷‍♀️

      3:43 PM - 20 Dec 2018
      • 1 Retweet
      • 7 Likes
      • bIm Ali A Olomi richard Ben Seeley Valdivia 참기름 Katharsis
      3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. 157% Unbiased‏ @SciencePartisan 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          Amplification and reinforcing the message is where the troll factory came in. And that’s where the conspiracy is too, the bizarre immediate cohesion around nonsense stories to push an agenda.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. 157% Unbiased‏ @SciencePartisan 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @SciencePartisan @zeynep and

          Events could be staged or pop up on reddit and as long as they had their little 👌 sign 💩 posters like cernovich amplifying it, and their bot army yelling at anyone who tried to talk some sense they could vet for RT & Fox, who would them post their stories simultaneously

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Weltgeist redux  💉 💉 💉‏ @Sociopathblog 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          I really don't know where this thread started or ends. I 've bookmarked it for further reading. On a methodological plane: there won't be the possibility of hypothesis testing. On a macro level, n=1; we have only one election. On a micro level, we have no information on 1/2

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Weltgeist redux  💉 💉 💉‏ @Sociopathblog 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @Sociopathblog @zeynep and

          media reception and (change of) voting intent. We've to live with thick description. If this is not Nate's cup of regression, he's dismissed. .@zeynep's point that media reception is interactive-constructive is state of the art to my knowledge. Basically Sunni v Shia. No war,pls.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Glizzee Vitaman‏ @schmackelstan 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          1/ I like that Nature article. The measured effects for changes in voter turnout are easily within the margin of what could have swung the election. They estimated an additional 270K voters on ~15 mil treatment size with only 1-2 treatments.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Glizzee Vitaman‏ @schmackelstan 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @schmackelstan @zeynep and

          2/ Trump only won by about a 106K vote margin in 3 states and for certain there were more treatments that were more targeted.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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