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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      How about this as a **testable** theory: HYPOTHESIS: If Russian troll posts were more influential than the raw numbers imply, they should have higher-than-average engagement (retweets/replies/faves) from blue-checkmark journalist Twitter accounts than other 2016 content.

      7 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      That's just taking us back to Skinner, skipping over the whole cognitive revolution. People read and interpret, even if they don't react (especially to trolling). But, if we had full data, we could measure narratives they initiated -> media narratives. Theoretically measurable.

      2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      OK, it's pretty telling IMO that you've rejected an **actually** testable (in practice, not just in theory) hypothesis for ones that are either impossible or extremely cumbersome to test.

      4 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      Is it possible that it's not a good one? Why would people actively respond *more* to trolling that nevertheless impacted them? How would you ever measure impacts of abusive behavior online? We know: people tend to go silent. There really was a reason we moved beyond Skinner.

      5 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
    5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      OK, then give me some other hypothesis that's *actually testable* and that someone (you or me or a smart graduate student out there) could *actually test* (i.e.. the data is available publicly) in a reasonable length of time.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      You'd never have any complex research by that standard. Allow only existing data plus a grad student—preclude all other questions? Here's a reasonable ask: 1-an independent research team; 2-gets access to non-public social media data; 3-combine it with public data; 4-gets a year.

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      A version of this is happening, but 2016 is excluded. Plus, we need a proper longitidunal panel for the future. My point in raising the objection is that there is genuinly doable research, but it's not easy. Framing the question right plus some resources plus, yeah, data access.

      2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
    8. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      Given that low-complexity analysis doesn't support your hypothesis, it's just not a good set of facts for you that you also reject any attempt at *medium*-complexity analysis.

      5 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    9. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

      Moreover, you still haven't even listed an actual, *high*-complexity hypothesis that could be tested (given some *reasonable* parameters, e.g. a smart graduate student with a year and cooperation from one of the major social media platforms to fulfill additional data requests).

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      I don't understand why we're limited to one graduate student here when physicists are publishing papers with 5000+ authors BUT. Yes, a reasonable sized team plus past data from social media platforms plus a year or so. You'd have a good start.

      2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
      Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

      For example: prevalence of exposure to RU-originated memes to voting (voter records are public). Shift in narrative (sentiment analysis of a true random sample) as related to exposure (obviously confounds with algorithm plus self-selection but I've seen papers that get at this).

      3:11 PM - 20 Dec 2018
      • 1 Retweet
      • 11 Likes
      • Yossarian AaronGenest richard haunted.pdf John West Shaun Lawson Ben Seeley Sayan Sanyal Timothy Raben
      2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @BrendanNyhan

          None of those are hypotheses.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          Oh, gee. Now any grad student can translate those Q into RQ hypotheses. Exposure to RU-originated memes (controls for all the usuals plus algorithm confounds) lessened likelihood of voting. Impressions of RU-pages corresponded to pro-Trump shift in sentiment (controls blah blah).

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          Social media data may have natural experiments (when Facebook was testing what kind of news to promote: were there comparable groups we can test effects on?). Interaction between liking an RU-page and downstreat impact. Then impact of downgrading of content from liked pages. etc.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2018
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @BrendanNyhan

          (Lessened likelihood of voting: among left side of the spectrum, obviously). etc. There is no shortage of stuff to look for.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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