You're -- deliberately? -- confusing two things. The DNC hack could well have been important. There's no evidence that Russian shitposts on Instagram mattered much, though.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Not separable. The DNC hack was very much supported by massive operation on social media. It was almost all you'd see in some corners, mostly as screenshots with false claims that went viral. Plus, yep, mass media got played. Hence my call for looking at ecology, not percentages.
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Replying to @zeynep
I put "you have to look at the whole ecology" into my Google Academese translator and it came out as "I don't have any evidence".
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Okay! Keep looking at percent of tweets as a good metric for impact—and doctors should weigh viruses/bacteria as percent of bodymass to decide on impact and not look at how it impacts body/immune system (aka the whole ecology) . Good luck, to you and Dr. Google. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538
I'm open to these claims, but they ultimately need to generate testable hypotheses or we're not doing science. We have testable hypotheses about viruses and the immune system!
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Right now claims about low-volume social media operations having big systemic effects lack credible supporting evidence or even specific claims that could be tested.
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Replying to @BrendanNyhan @NateSilver538
Many complex systems & past events can't have simple testable hypotheses and refusing to study them would not be good. This isn't even a scial science problem. Geology manages. Also, as I keep arguing, the DNC hack and aftermath is part of this so some impacts are face-value big.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Plus, I'm increasingly wondering if it is that low-volume. (See here, which is, almost by definition an undercount since we only know what's been uncovered). At the moment, anything we can measure is a modest estimate for floor since it was covert. https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1075854442191175680 …)
zeynep tufekci added,
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I'm arguing that percent of tweets-posts is not a good measure. That's how it started. What's the best metric, how to get there, etc. Good other discussion.
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