Definitely influenced press behavior in many ways. Hard to know the counterfactual but plausible.https://twitter.com/phwji/status/1061100783947706368 …
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I think it affected how most in the press treated her, as well. They scrutinized her and humored him. She lost, in large part, because everyone thought she would win.
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I think maybe the midterms are telling a different story.
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I’ve never understood why the Obama admin didn’t go public with the Facebook/Google/Twitter manipulation. Didn’t need R buy-in for that. Might have raised skepticism.
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Honest Q: what's the alternative? Be less rigorous in horse race coverage? Not have horse race coverage?
@NateSilver538 is fairly clear on this: there will be horse race coverage, and it's the media's job to not misrepresent the data available. No other alternative.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Seemed to have moved both prediction markets and the bond markets in 2018https://twitter.com/arpitrage/status/1060256090389168128?s=21 …
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Another effect we saw among participants—confusing probability of winning and vote share—also seems to have occurred in the mediahttps://twitter.com/jbenton/status/1059898288139354112?s=21 …
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I think that even for people who understood this wasn't vote share, there is a way in which 80-90% has a visceral reaction—especially since this generation grew up on polls with vote-shares. It *feels* like a landslide. The visual presentation was especially overwhelming, imo.
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