If I had a magic-wand, I'd do away with all the horse-race coverage. All of it. So much damage from the amount of oxygen it sucks and how it shapes the coverage. Besides, it doesn't work well anymore. The models aren't capturing shifts and the polls are too non-random.¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/jonathanweisman/status/1054721068869541888 …
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Plus people don't know how to viscerally interpret probability models (the newer way of reporting) vs poll margin of error (what everyone grew up on). I swear, that, almost as much as anything explains 2016. Many actors made inexplicable decisions based on bad reporting of stats.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ezra Levin
Take that 89.5%. The faux-precision killed me. It's a fuzzy, fuzzy number—as people figured out. IIRC the model was built on mere 14 cases? Also, the ERRORS ARE CORRELATED. (Noted only in the footnotes WHICH I READ. But of course people just see pictures).https://twitter.com/ezralevin/status/1054418925037981696 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Ezra LevinVerified account @ezralevinExactly two years ago, on Oct 22nd 2016,@NateSilver538 gave Hillary a 85.9% chance. Today, he gives House Dems an 85.9% chance. Don't let history repeat itself - you can literally sign up RIGHT NOW to phonebank this week. We will win if we earn it. Link: https://indivisible.org/phonebank pic.twitter.com/v3a2RpIaOd1 reply 13 retweets 42 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
FiveThirtyEight is admirably clear about this. They even changed to topline numbers to be ratios precisely people don't read about how the model works.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
It is better now, but still... I tweeted begging them to do better in presentation for months and months in 2016.. before the election. Their top-line graphic was so misleading to folks, and they let it be till the election day. And they are still probably the best of the bunch.
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