If I had a magic-wand, I'd do away with all the horse-race coverage. All of it. So much damage from the amount of oxygen it sucks and how it shapes the coverage. Besides, it doesn't work well anymore. The models aren't capturing shifts and the polls are too non-random.¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/jonathanweisman/status/1054721068869541888 …
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FiveThirtyEight is admirably clear about this. They even changed to topline numbers to be ratios precisely people don't read about how the model works.
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The error correlation is part of the model. Not sure what's unclear on that score. That is, the error correlation is the main reason FiveThirtyEight gave Trump much better odds than other forecasters.
End of conversation
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