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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Oct 2018

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jonathan Weisman

      If I had a magic-wand, I'd do away with all the horse-race coverage. All of it. So much damage from the amount of oxygen it sucks and how it shapes the coverage. Besides, it doesn't work well anymore. The models aren't capturing shifts and the polls are too non-random.¯\_(ツ)_/¯https://twitter.com/jonathanweisman/status/1054721068869541888 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jonathan WeismanVerified account @jonathanweisman
      I feel like political journalism learned the wrong lesson in 2016. We’re bending over backwards to suggest that just maybe conventional wisdom is wrong and Republicans will hold Congress when I think the lesson of 2016 should be simpler: stop predicting either way.
      3 replies 49 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Oct 2018

      Plus people don't know how to viscerally interpret probability models (the newer way of reporting) vs poll margin of error (what everyone grew up on). I swear, that, almost as much as anything explains 2016. Many actors made inexplicable decisions based on bad reporting of stats.

      1 reply 9 retweets 49 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Oct 2018

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ezra Levin

      Take that 89.5%. The faux-precision killed me. It's a fuzzy, fuzzy number—as people figured out. IIRC the model was built on mere 14 cases? Also, the ERRORS ARE CORRELATED. (Noted only in the footnotes WHICH I READ. But of course people just see pictures).https://twitter.com/ezralevin/status/1054418925037981696 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Ezra LevinVerified account @ezralevin
      Exactly two years ago, on Oct 22nd 2016, @NateSilver538 gave Hillary a 85.9% chance. Today, he gives House Dems an 85.9% chance. Don't let history repeat itself - you can literally sign up RIGHT NOW to phonebank this week. We will win if we earn it. Link: https://indivisible.org/phonebank  pic.twitter.com/v3a2RpIaOd
      8:54 AM - 23 Oct 2018
      • 13 Retweets
      • 42 Likes
      • W. T. Tarık Beyhan Eric J Christeson James Warren-Mordecai ericbalasbas jn Alyson Griese Bruce Hahne Mark Gubrud
      1 reply 13 retweets 42 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jackson Kernion‏ @JacksonKernion 23 Oct 2018
          Replying to @zeynep

          FiveThirtyEight is admirably clear about this. They even changed to topline numbers to be ratios precisely people don't read about how the model works.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jackson Kernion‏ @JacksonKernion 23 Oct 2018
          Replying to @JacksonKernion @zeynep

          The error correlation is part of the model. Not sure what's unclear on that score. That is, the error correlation is the main reason FiveThirtyEight gave Trump much better odds than other forecasters.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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