Plus people don't know how to viscerally interpret probability models (the newer way of reporting) vs poll margin of error (what everyone grew up on). I swear, that, almost as much as anything explains 2016. Many actors made inexplicable decisions based on bad reporting of stats.
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Take that 89.5%. The faux-precision killed me. It's a fuzzy, fuzzy number—as people figured out. IIRC the model was built on mere 14 cases? Also, the ERRORS ARE CORRELATED. (Noted only in the footnotes WHICH I READ. But of course people just see pictures).https://twitter.com/ezralevin/status/1054418925037981696 …
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A good possibility is that things would get worse if Dems had the House. You’d have the US gov’t in open war with itself.
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Its entirely possible no meaningful law would get passed for 2 years.
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I don't know if there's a venue for it, but I'd love to hear you and
@NateSilver538 hash out your respective feelings on this. I'm not sure he'd disagree with you on at least a lot of points about how models are widely reported.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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