1 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing-the-election-for-trump … I think @JaneMayerNYer has this wrong. NB - this is not the Kavanaugh story. It is her piece summarizing a new book by Kathleen Hall Jamieson which claims that Russian influence operations etc probably won the election for Trump.
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2. I haven't read the book (it's embargoed) - perhaps the full text is more convincing than the Mayer summary. But it sounds as though Jamieson is at odds with other social scientists. There are reasons why other political scientists have not made these kinds of arguments.
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3. As
@BrendanNyhan - who is briefly mentioned in the article discusses - here -https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/fake-news-and-bots-may-be-worrisome-but-their-political-power-is-overblown.html … - there is strong reason to believe that it's really, really hard to use messaging, targeted or otherwise, to change people's minds on politics.8 replies 1 retweet 21 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @henryfarrell @BrendanNyhan
Note to self: maybe both perspectives are true? How to articulate that?
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Replying to @craignewmark @BrendanNyhan
I think that is most plausible if the effects of social media effects on turnout suppression are high. But the corollary as per
@zeynep is that if it is so easy to do bad political stuff with social media, more likely that domestic actors than Russia will take advantage in future1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Are domestic and foreign bad actors part of the same network?
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Given how close the election was, it's plausible there's a different president ceteris paribus the meddling/hacking—especially turnout effects but repeated exposure and overton window effects are underestimated & hard to measure—but still think proper focus is domestic dynamics.
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My anology has been immune system/opportunistic infection. Better focus is on strengthening the immune system while not ignoring or downplaying any opportunistic infection because the effects are still tangible! Have a piece coming out soon on this.
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