Measurement choice is destiny, case zillion. The popular hurricane scale, Saffir-Simpson, is based on highest sustained wind-speed—only one kind of risk, and often not the most important one. Florence is now larger, but with slightly slower winds at the center. So "weakened".
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1040191619209867265 …
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Also, USPS just delivered. And Chapel Hill Public Library is keeping regular hours today.
The conditions here are still okay but almost everything is shut down. They are not. #Florencepic.twitter.com/EeasseZmvd
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This is a well-known issue amongst weather folk. It's a sticky problem because we want to categorize based on observations (wind speed is something we can measure or at least estimate while storm is offshore) not forecast. Surge, rain, etc. can't be measured until landfall.
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Yeah, familiar with some of the discussions. Clearly, there needs to be indicators that are actionable for people, rather than easiest to put number on. A scale for evacuation; a scale for tree-falling risk; a scale for flooding, etc. Biggest decision is evacuating, of course.
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It's a big reason why the NWS, NHC, and most competent meteorologists have been falling all over ourselves trying to talk about flooding risks first despite categorizations. 2/
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yep! The crisis in New Bern etc. is heartbreaking!
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Wind is accessible over the ocean via plane, so its a convenience measure which does describe risks. application to lives and the built environment much harder with "just wind". 1/n
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legibility is one of the most important concepts I learned in 2018 and it touches everywhere once you grok it. What and how we make legible affects *everything* downstream.
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Absolutely!
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