Weather geek twitter is great fun, and who knows what the actual track will be with all this model uncertainty, but the strength is assured and the coastal areas are looking to take a brutal wind+flood beating. I hope everyone who needs to evacuate has evacuated—or is about to.
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Yeay, a small, useful list! Some "to-do" lists floating around are not doable! It all reminds me infosec discussions. You don't have to prepare for a Hobbesian aftermath—not what's gonna happen. You want water, food and batteries—and a few precautions. http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20180912/you-have-24-hours-until-florence-do-these-things-now …
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If you're in an evacuation or potential flood zone—please leave! For rest of us, hurricane deaths are mostly: people trying to drive through water & downed trees. My Facebook is full of folks panicking because they don't have battery powered fans. Crisis communication failure.
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We'll see historic flooding in parts—non-flood prone areas will flood. From what I can tell, NC is already aggressive in ordering evacuations. Downed trees are big issue: stay downstairs, basement if possible. Other than that, share list above if you've panicking friends/family!
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It's gotten to the point that Facebook group admins in the area are consolidating hurricane related posts and asking people not to post more—just provoking anxiety. The groups are great for finding places for evacuees and some tips but it's become a panic/anxiety feedback circle.
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Also
#florence is a tricky forecast in terms of track. Weather geek twitter is all alight. People anywhere in the cone need to be prepared for flooding (if applicable) and no power. This feels like the 2016 election: the confidence in the forecast is different than the forecast.Show this thread -
History changed in 2016 because of widespread failure in communicating volatility and sources of errors in election forecasts. Florence track is another case: weather folks are sure of strength and impact, but there is still more than usual volatility on *where* it will go.
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End of conversation
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Here are some important numbers for people living in NC area: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/durham-county/article218124900.html …
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Many inland gas stations (200 miles in) already out of gas, says my son.
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