The idea that there's a wide swath of Americans that support violence is wrong. See @seanjwestwood et al (2021). https://osf.io/a8m3n/ pic.twitter.com/4zRbqOk8Zk
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I’ve seen more and more academics and elites say that the U.S. is likely headed towards civil war or secession.*
Not only is this wrong, it's also incredibly dangerous.
Here's why. 
*See https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-walter-research/ … and https://www.ft.com/content/31d26514-11f1-4c07-9900-6265870191cd …pic.twitter.com/s6x39Xqxl5
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Mernyk (2021) et al. show that overestimation of support for violence by rival partisans has real consequences Correcting these misperceptions reduces support for violence. https://osf.io/8ftsx/ pic.twitter.com/BaaDl3cjoE
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Canonical models of political violence show that conflict can spiral from misperceptions or fear of rival groups' future intentions. Stoking this fear can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. http://web.mit.edu/SSP/people/posen/security-dilemma.pdf … http://quote.ucsd.edu/lake/files/2014/07/IS-21-2-1996.pdf …pic.twitter.com/HLFxVEqqiX
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Yes, the U.S. is a flawed, highly polarized Democracy. And post-January 6th, the Republican Party has increasingly embraced the politics of threat and coercion. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/22/briefing/paul-gosar-censure-violence.html …pic.twitter.com/Sc7aEWi7eS
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But there are many contentious tactics that fall short of civil war and secession: protests, battles, blockades, terrorist attacks, etc. Things may get more contentious, but academics have a duty to not engage in threat inflation that can make it worse. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/america-civil-war-prophecies/620850/ …pic.twitter.com/pB9jrtncyW
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Not a civil war but perhaps a Civil Cold War as profesor Dimitry Suslov once commented, in Suslov’s opinion the thing that maintains the status quo and prevents the tensions from deteriorating into armed conflict is the US system of courts that despite all the issues still works.
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Oh please. Stop praying for it.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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No. Not going to happen.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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The way I like to think of it, we had a 0.1% chance of a Civil War 10 years ago, but now it's like 10%. Still very unlikely, but 100x more likely than a while ago.
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