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What if China's sudden drop in cases is not because of isolation, but because they found a cure and aren't sharing it? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-latest-updates.html … 34 https://6abc.com/health/wuhan-china-confirms-only-1-new-covid-19-case-for-2nd-straight-day/6024070/ … 1? But, most experts say that even with isolation and distancing it doesn't totally go away.
They get COVID-19 first, it spreads, and they find a way to stop it, but rather than sharing it with the world, they keep it secret (which they're good at) and let the virus tank all their competitor's economies just a little. Does their isolation policy explain 1 in Hubei?
Mathematically it adds up. If you have R0=2.3, dividing social interaction by say 5x should be more than enough for case count to decrease exponentially. I would expect total lockdown to limit social interaction more like 100x.
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