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zchagla's profile
Zain Chagla
Zain Chagla
Zain Chagla
Verified account
@zchagla

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Zain ChaglaVerified account

@zchagla

Infectious Diseases Physician at St. Joe's Hamilton / Associate Professor at McMaster University. Views are mine alone and don’t reflect institutions.

McMaster University
experts.mcmaster.ca/display/chaglaz
Joined October 2012

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    1. Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021

      This @NEJM paper suggesting 30% efficacy of the vaccine against B117 in Qatar is making the rounds. Really nice design for post 2nd dose vaccination, but the do not include a time-lag for 14 days post first dose (at least I can see in the paper/supp) 1/3https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104974?query=featured_home …

      12 replies 32 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021

      Why is this important - well - we know vaccines take 10-14 days to kick in. So judging efficacy based on those first 10-14 days doesn't make sense. From Ontario data over 2/3 of breakthrough cases occur in this period. 2/3

      2 replies 12 retweets 52 likes
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      Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021

      So redoing this analysis with this in mind (and excluding 2/3 of the cases with this assumption) I would get 77% vaccine efficacy against B117 post first dose. That is actually pretty decent! These @NEJM letters need more peer review for these implications.

      10:03 AM - 6 May 2021
      • 18 Retweets
      • 111 Likes
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      11 replies 18 retweets 111 likes
        1. Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021

          Zain Chagla Retweeted Mario Elia

          Thanks @supermarioeliahttps://twitter.com/supermarioelia/status/1390362358971781122?s=20 …

          Zain Chagla added,

          Mario Elia @supermarioelia
          Here is the author's response to me. Extremely helpful. https://twitter.com/IrfanDhalla/status/1390346133227061249 … pic.twitter.com/8qGLfdCJQe
          Show this thread
          3 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
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        2. AD3341‏ @AD33412 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla @NEJM

          Zain thanks for this. Insane that this wasn't accounted for and is now making the rounds.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021
          Replying to @AD33412 @NEJM

          Our GOVT is actually making decisions on this It's bonkers.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Roby Bhattacharyya‏ @roby_bhatt 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla

          Agree; Supp Table 3 shows that [post-2nd dose] vs [≥14d post-2nd dose] have almost identical efficacy, which implies that efficacy by the end of the 1-dose period must be quite high.

          0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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        1. Michael Booth‏ @_MichaelBooth_ 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla @NEJM

          Appreciate the clarity in an easy to understand way. @Justin_Ling not a bad tweet to include in your thread on this issue. 77% against B117 is in fact very, very good news

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Mario Elia‏ @supermarioelia 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla @NEJM

          Just emailed the author, waiting to hear back with clarification re: that 1st dose timeline.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Husam Abdel-Qadir‏ @husam247 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla @NEJM

          If this is true, then it is a major oversight. You should write a letter to the editor and ask them to re-do the analysis that way. This has important implications worldwide @BogochIsaac @TorontoIDDoc @DrToddLee

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Zain Chagla‏Verified account @zchagla 6 May 2021
          Replying to @husam247 @NEJM and

          Their point may have been looking at full dose vaccine, and not to describe first dose. Still if you include the analysis you have to include that caveat. @supermarioelia seems to have written to the authors.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Diane Wilson‏ @wilson50 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zchagla @NEJM

          Thanks for clarification!!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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