Nice chart but how is ‘guilt likely’ and ‘probably guilty’ any different (and vice versa for unlikely and probably not)? Seems a superfluous distinctiom. Otherwise, is a very nice characterisation of shades of belief.
If I had more free time, I’d make one of these for explaining when overstating VC interest turns into fraud. https://twitter.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1199776883690242048 …pic.twitter.com/p9pTOL0RmL
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Lots of common law precedent around differences between probable, possible, likely etc.
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Would love to see one for discussing growth. Fraud: "rev growing 300% YoY" -> actually 22% Kinda-Fraud: "$2MM ARR" -> conflating 'run rate' vs 'recurring revenue' Somewhat-Fraud: "Avg customer added 5 seats" -> one massive customer added a ton, conflating median vs mean
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Not-Really-Fraud: "We have an NPS of 78" -> we only survey users at the 6 mo mark, after dissatisfied ones have churned Not-Fraud-But-Still-Misinformed: "Customers love us" -> only meet/talk to users at signup/renewal
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