Ahhh. So the unspoken piece here is “... and pay them more than anyone else is offering.”
The first indicator that this might be great advice is the near-unanimous disagreement in the replies. In hiring, you can either become among the best in the world at identifying mispriced assets - or you can pay market rates. And nearly everyone thinks they’re a great picker.https://twitter.com/awilkinson/status/1170012873512239104 …
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Or the same, but with more autonomy/higher impact/healthier culture.
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I have a longer set of thoughts half written on why I don't agree with the OP even if you don't care about developing people, but you seem to have summarized the biggest flaw yourself:https://twitter.com/zackkanter/status/1170741006674907136?s=19 …
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Here’s the uncropped paragraph, for the counterpoint :)pic.twitter.com/YwCfoYopiN
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Does this also apply to a VC picking a founder? Should you only fund someone who's "done the exact task" of successfully founding a startup company before? And pay an appropriately high valuation for that person?
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The VC model is driven by power laws. They expect the vast majority to fail and are looking for exceptions. Different than hiring.
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Generally agree with the original advice. Generally agree with your point re: overconfidence in assessment. Another variable, though — knowing whether you have an advantage in either systems or in developing people for people to levelup/perform more rapidly than baseline.
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Agreed. Good point. Another frame for this might be: are you going to be the best in the world at developing talent, or the best in the world at leveraging talent?
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If everyone did that though no one would have any experience in the thing you’re trying to hire them for.
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Yes, a contrarian strategy can't work for everyone by definition.
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