Business cycles are astrology for people with MBAs. Today might be a good time to be in cash, but do so based on a forward-looking analysis, and appreciate that you and Apple *might* not have the same constraints.https://twitter.com/zackkanter/status/1137769200993181698 …
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Replying to @pt
It’s irrational to try to time the market. Almost as irrational as not holding cash as a hedge 10 years into the second longest bull market in history.
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Replying to @zackkanter
Why would you believe there’s some magic expiration date on prosperity, particularly if you believe these things can’t be timed (predicted)? The former idea seems like voodoo, and the latter seems to contradict the former.
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Replying to @pt
The founder’s job is to never let the company run out of money. Holding cash is not “trying to time the market” or “voodoo” - it’s protection against existential downside. If you’re an individual investor w/a long term time horizon and an indexing strategy, macro is irrelevant.
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Replying to @zackkanter @pt
The companies running massive buybacks and holding cash are not the ones that are founder run. Has Amazon ever been accused of hoarding cash? Can you really convince yourself that Apple holds a quarter trillion in cash for protection against “existential downside”?
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Buybacks are good. Apple doesn’t know what to do with its money.
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Replying to @zackkanter @pt
Fair enough; but buybacks tend to be a corollary of not knowing what to do with your money
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Buybacks are just a tax-advantageous way of returning capital to shareholders.
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