A BRIEF HISTORY OF TESLA: - no one wants electric cars - hmm but there's not enough range - fine but that's only for the rich - batteries are too expensive to make a car so cheap - yeah but good luck delivering - sure but it'll never turn a profit - that's just pent up demand!
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Amongst non-straw man arguments it’s pretty consistently been: there’s a far better chance incumbents out scale turn before they grow into their multiple, than that Tesla will remain in front forever. At that point Tesla’s stock probably collapses because dominance is priced in.
Until an incumbent is willing to go with a clean sheet design, I don’t think it’ll happen. And by the time they’re willing to make that leap, it might be too late.
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There’ll eventually retool for EV-only designs. It’s not clear that compromises really matter. If I understand, the trade off will be cheaper cars at greater scale with slightly less range. That seems fine.
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Agree for fleets, as long as economics make sense they’ll move. But the Bolt suggests that the tradeoff of a non-clean-sheet design is individuals not being willing to buy the car.
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It’s amazing just how right Clay Christensen is proving to behttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/05/14/when-giants-fail …
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