also add whatever @benedictevans is saying
A BRIEF HISTORY OF TESLA: - no one wants electric cars - hmm but there's not enough range - fine but that's only for the rich - batteries are too expensive to make a car so cheap - yeah but good luck delivering - sure but it'll never turn a profit - that's just pent up demand!
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I’ve been as clear as I possibly can be that I agree with everything Zack says. it’s also not the long term question - you could make exactly the same point about Apple in the late 70s and early 80s. the question was not whether PCs become a thing, but who won from that.
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Amongst non-straw man arguments it’s pretty consistently been: there’s a far better chance incumbents out scale turn before they grow into their multiple, than that Tesla will remain in front forever. At that point Tesla’s stock probably collapses because dominance is priced in.
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Until an incumbent is willing to go with a clean sheet design, I don’t think it’ll happen. And by the time they’re willing to make that leap, it might be too late.
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Wasn’t there a “the batteries will wear out in two years. Replacing them will be horrifically expensive” phase as well?
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Yep, and a “they’re only for eco-warriers, not car fans” phase, not to mention a “they’re _actually_ worse for the environment, don’t you know?” phase which still continues...
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Also history of anything and everything disruptive
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Don’t forget to add the government subsidies to lower the price for the buyer and distribute it across taxpayers lolz.
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Do we include oil subsidies too?
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