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1/It’s possible that tariffs might actually “work” in cases like Apple (tons of cash to repatriate & enough scale to run an automated US factory). But man, it’s going to devastate small business. Ex: avg auto parts brand does 7% EBITDA. 25% increase in COGS and you’re dead.
2/The price difference for fully-automated manufacturing in US vs China at large scale isn't that bad. But at low volume (say, 500-2000 units a year, which is actually 'high volume' for a small business), price difference can be 5-10x - if you can find someone to make it at all.
3/This means that small businesses just have to keep buying from China, but now the small business is paying a 25% tax. They can't absorb that (see #1), so they increase prices. Total consumer discretionary is ~fixed, so power just consolidates to fewer, larger firms.
4/The big concern here is that the high-profile cases (e.g. hypothetical Apple moving manufacturing back to US) are highly visible, but the consolidation of small businesses is almost invisible - leading to reduced dynamism and increased wealth inequality behind the scenes. (end)
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