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1/ I think Amazon will grow into the current (insane) valuation on a long enough time horizon, but I’m extraordinarily optimistic & (at least think I) have some unique insight from selling to/buying from AMZN in many diff ways for many years.
2/ Could be wrong, but hard to imagine current valuation reflects that most AMZN shareholders have same irrational/insane optimism & very long time horizon. Seems more likely that investors are confident that the (insane) premium the market has placed will continue - or increase.
3/ Seems like Amazon is a miss, scare, or bear market away from a giant price correction. B Graham’s comments on IBM/Xerox seem apt: “These striking losses...reflected a lack of confidence in the premium valuation that the stock market had placed on these excellent prospects.”pic.twitter.com/g1M2uro085
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