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ZachMontellaro's profile
Zach Montellaro
Zach Montellaro
Zach Montellaro
Verified account
@ZachMontellaro

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Zach MontellaroVerified account

@ZachMontellaro

Covering how people vote & writing Score for @POLITICO. Nothing you say will upset me more than the Mets. DMs open, email me at zmontellaro(at)politico(dot)com

Washington, D.C.
politico.com/morningscore/
Joined April 2012

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    Zach Montellaro‏Verified account @ZachMontellaro 19 Jun 2019

    New USA @USATODAY/@Suffolk_U NATIONAL poll (counts for July debate) Biden 30.13% Sanders 15.32% Warren 9.61% Buttigieg 9.35% Harris 8.31% O'Rourke 2.34% Booker 2.08% Castro 1.30% Hickenlooper 1.04% Everyone else is below 1 percent (pdf link) https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2019/6_19_2019_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=0A8B98E4C936874B91CECF3F3B51939D5D9E8D9E …

    8:00 AM - 19 Jun 2019
    • 57 Retweets
    • 126 Likes
    • Isaiah Abenchuchan Robby Pasquale B. Stephen Music2MyEars William Zelin Supun Liyanage The Broken🎃🔨Carpenter Mona Lisa for Bernie ✌️
    26 replies 57 retweets 126 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Zach Montellaro‏Verified account @ZachMontellaro 19 Jun 2019

        This really changes nothing for July. Nobody who needed a poll picked it up & no averages went up. For clarity's sake: If a candidate was >.5% but <1%, I did not count it as a poll they got 1% in. I think the DNC's rules are clear, but I asked for clarityhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dHSFg0jrAeIAqDlFZqAu-5N2x-wk8PT-6H4DbCendUM/edit?usp=sharing …

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Zach Montellaro‏Verified account @ZachMontellaro 19 Jun 2019

        Here's the DNC rules: Polling average is "using the top-line number listed in the original public release from the approved sponsoring organization/institution, whether or not it is a rounded or weighted number" https://democrats.org/press/dnc-announces-details-for-the-first-two-presidential-primary-debates/ …

        2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Zach Montellaro‏Verified account @ZachMontellaro 19 Jun 2019

        Zach Montellaro Retweeted Dave Sund

        Also, I'm using decimal places because it is mentioned in the poll, and the DNC rules explicitly mention decimal places. But don't take that as a judgement on the accuracy of decimals in polling — @DaveSund raises a good point!https://twitter.com/davesund/status/1141365311133949952 …

        Zach Montellaro added,

        Dave Sund @davesund
        Rounding to the hundredth presents an illusion of accuracy that no poll can truly measure. And it makes me instantly skeptical of any poll that does it. https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1141360062570684422 …
        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Zach Montellaro‏Verified account @ZachMontellaro 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @2024_Delegates @USATODAY @Suffolk_U

        Zach Montellaro Retweeted Zach Montellaro

        Blame the pollster, not me!https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1141369980535136256 …

        Zach Montellaro added,

        Zach MontellaroVerified account @ZachMontellaro
        Also, I'm using decimal places because it is mentioned in the poll, and the DNC rules explicitly mention decimal places. But don't take that as a judgement on the accuracy of decimals in polling — @DaveSund raises a good point! https://twitter.com/davesund/status/1141365311133949952 …
        Show this thread
        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Katie McGrath‏ @katiemcgrath 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @ZachMontellaro @USATODAY @Suffolk_U

        I urge @BetoORourke to run for Senate instead.

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Susie Draper 🛹‏ @susiedrapes 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @katiemcgrath @ZachMontellaro and

        Nope, he’s running for POTUS. A badass Air Force combat veteran @mjhegar is running against Cornyn. MJ ran in TX 31st in 2018 & only lost by 3 points. The Dem who ran in 2016 lost by 22 points! If you’re truly worried about the senate pls donate to her.pic.twitter.com/FW4xYLmzUU

        MJ Hegar
        (Re)Introduction
        Texans deserve a Senator who represents our values: strength, courage, independence. Join MJ's Campaign for Senate.
        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Jeremy Marsh‏ @JeremyRMarsh 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @ZachMontellaro @USATODAY @Suffolk_U

        2 numbers after the decimal...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Justice for Everyone‏ @DanStickdude 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @ZachMontellaro @shaunking and

        That’s 5 legitimate candidates the rest shouldn’t be invited to debate.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Catherine Larrick‏ @lifeisplay2211 19 Jun 2019
        Replying to @ZachMontellaro @shaunking and

        Why is Biden at the top?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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