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2/ Yet 90% of living statisticians still believe it can be "resolved" by re-visualizing data. My esteemed discussants on The American Statistician, https://ucla.in/2Jfl2VS (eg, Xiao-Li Meng) wouldn't even utter the word "causation". And it is 2020, and Statisticians get angry
3/3 when I remind them of the date, and their students still can't cope with a paradox that has haunted statistics for the past 120 years. Pearl unfairly bashes statistics, they say. #Bookofwhy
You propose do-operators to avoid the Simpson paradox, right? But you cannot control all variables in the experiment. There might be an uncontroled set of variables that may cause the paradox. That is a feature of probabilities. How to deal with it? By rejecting the experiment?
No! do(x) does not appear in https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r414-reprint.pdf …
I just identified where the paradox comes from -- i.e., clash between causal intuition and statistical logic -- and resolved it by replacing stat logic with causal logic. Plain commonsense. #Bookofwhy
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