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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

    I know that the reported numbers from this week have a lot of people saying "I told you so", but from a modeling perspective, the rapid rise in cases+deaths in the US is fairly unprecedented. I follow data for 70+ countries and the US is truly in a league of its own.

    12:04 PM - 11 Jul 2020
    • 621 Retweets
    • 1,673 Likes
    • Samantha DiBois (formerly Coleman) RealisticProgressive April Ellis Azaam Jamil The Political Party Aron Roberts Kerry CENTER Asmira Zed 🌌
    47 replies 621 retweets 1,673 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        I am estimating that the number of new infections right now (275,000 per day) is exceeding the level we've seen in March/April. That means that 1 in every 90 Americans (1.1%) is currently infected (including asymptomatic individuals). This may still be an underestimate.pic.twitter.com/7mkgDir7KW

        24 replies 330 retweets 629 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        Youyang Gu Retweeted Scott Gottlieb, MD

        Our infections estimate matches the curve of the nationwide hospitalization data (after accounting for a 2-week lag).https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1281786741029052418 …

        Youyang Gu added,

        Scott Gottlieb, MDVerified account @ScottGottliebMD
        Florida is now reporting hospitalization data where the primary cause of admission is Covid. Currently there are 51,000 Americans hospitalized with Covid. At the peak of the epidemic's first wave, centered in New York in April, there were about 60,000 Americans Hospitalized. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/raW9d4vfrr
        Show this thread
        1 reply 53 retweets 190 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        Youyang Gu Retweeted Nicholas G. Reich

        Just 3 weeks ago, there was a lot of disagreement on the future trajectory, even among the more accurate models. This is intrinsically a difficult problem and forecasts are probabilistic rather than perfect. I encourage looking at confidence intervals.https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1275533827474100226 …

        Youyang Gu added,

        Nicholas G. ReichVerified account @reichlab
        Some of the more accurate models from recent weeks disagree on the slope of #COVID19 mortality over the next few weeks in the US. These models show a range of possible futures by mid-July: from just under 2K deaths/week to over 5K deaths/week. http://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/  2/ pic.twitter.com/RDMuLqm4IK
        Show this thread
        3 replies 28 retweets 180 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        Our model only trains on daily reported deaths to minimize overfitting. But that has the downside of being slow to react to large spikes in cases. As more data comes in, it should be able to adjust accordingly. I'm working to better incorporate the recent trends.

        10 replies 21 retweets 162 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        The only other country that shares a similar trajectory is Iran. They've seen their daily deaths increase 3x since they reopened back in April. If the US follows a similar trajectory, we'd be looking at 1,500 deaths/day by end of August (albeit unlikely for now).pic.twitter.com/oKH4LPbkQX

        13 replies 78 retweets 237 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020

        Just for the record, here's how our forecast from 2 weeks ago has fared so far. I included IHME's projections as well, because why not?pic.twitter.com/MfEmnNeF8h

        16 replies 49 retweets 235 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Boosted Kraken  💉 💉 💉‏ @twidark1 11 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        Artificial intelligence having a hard time predicting the extent of stupidity of a human population... When 38% of that population is brainwashed by Fox News and social media. Why am I not surprised? 😜

        3 replies 11 retweets 123 likes
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      2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 11 Jul 2020
        Replying to @Nabert94366848

        Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

        https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1282034555713724418 …

        Youyang Gu added,

        Youyang Gu @youyanggu
        Just for the record, here's how our forecast from 2 weeks ago has fared so far. I included IHME's projections as well, because why not? pic.twitter.com/MfEmnNeF8h
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. End of conversation

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