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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 2 Jul 2020

      I estimate that there are ~200,000 new infections per day in the US, 4x higher than the reported number of cases. By end of July, we may exceed the true number of peak daily infections from back in March/April. This is undoubtedly the second wave.pic.twitter.com/nRe6tgWSLQ

      91 replies 386 retweets 777 likes
    2. Edwin Choi‏ @edwinmchoi 2 Jul 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Aren't deaths still decreasing? How is your model picking up the uptick in infections? Are deaths decreasing at a decelerating rate?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 2 Jul 2020
      Replying to @edwinmchoi

      We have been projecting a decrease in deaths until 4th of July weekend for the past several weeks. This is due to the decreasing IFR and lag between cases/deaths.

      10:18 AM - 2 Jul 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 70 Likes
      • ashley Bennett Herbert Zaphod Julie Peterson Beth Loves to Travel Pras Francis, MD PhD Tom Ruen CharityNess Aron Roberts
      4 replies 5 retweets 70 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Edwin Choi‏ @edwinmchoi 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu

          Right, but your model only uses deaths as an input, right? How did it conclude that infections are increasing?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @edwinmchoi

          We assume that R will increase after reopening:https://covid19-projections.com/about/#social-distancing …

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Nate Weinert‏ @natebirdman 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @edwinmchoi

          Do you have your projected deaths somewhere public?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @natebirdman @edwinmchoi

          https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections …

          0 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Andrew Calinger-Yoak‏ @AndrewYoak 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @edwinmchoi

          If the machine learning is driven solely by deaths and those are decreasing (currently), how does the model predict a rise in new infections? Or am I wrong about what the model uses as input?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Edwin Choi‏ @edwinmchoi 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @AndrewYoak @youyanggu

          Edwin Choi Retweeted Youyang Gu

          Reopening dates too:https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1278742839011291137?s=19 …

          Edwin Choi added,

          Youyang Gu @youyanggu
          Replying to @edwinmchoi
          We assume that R will increase after reopening: https://covid19-projections.com/about/#social-distancing …
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2.  🇺🇸 Conserv8320  🇺🇸‏ @conserv8320 2 Jul 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @edwinmchoi

          But don't you have to take age of those being infected & underlying conditions into effect? The average age is way down. Even among the older population the risk of death is substantially higher if they have one or more underlying conditions. This is more true the younger the age

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
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        2. Edwin Choi‏ @edwinmchoi 2 Jul 2020

          Not a modeler, but it's been infecting younger people recently, so the average IFR will come down just by composition. Also, with experience, we would expect treatment to get more effective, so less people die.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation

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