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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 2 Jul 2020

    I estimate that there are ~200,000 new infections per day in the US, 4x higher than the reported number of cases. By end of July, we may exceed the true number of peak daily infections from back in March/April. This is undoubtedly the second wave.pic.twitter.com/nRe6tgWSLQ

    9:20 AM - 2 Jul 2020
    • 387 Retweets
    • 779 Likes
    • AHMADIYYAT ZINDABAD !!!!! Stefan Hansson velvis thomas flynn Suraj Hanchinal Nathan Scandella Kreus Greenwood Susan
    91 replies 387 retweets 779 likes
      1. Matthew‏ @Matthew_Leasure 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        So like third wave in the fall or what? 😅

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Ramin Farzaneh-Far MD‏ @rfsquared 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        But all occurring in areas without a first outbreak in the spring correct? So really it’s a first wave for new territories. Are you anticipating big recrudescent spikes in NY or MA which in recent days have seen daily deaths as low as 0?

        5 replies 4 retweets 60 likes
      3. Frank‏ @realMrFrank 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @rfsquared @youyanggu

        Notably and thankfully, looks like only one wave for fatalities, though.pic.twitter.com/eeu3RJOIdu

        4 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. PassedPawn.eth‏ @passedpawn 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        Why does your model daily infections peak in early August? Lagged effect of new government restrictions?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Martin Jones (he/him/his)‏ @Philly_Bluenose 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @passedpawn @youyanggu

        I think any forecast beyond a few weeks needs to be ignored, as the future trajectory depends so much on societal behaviors.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Party Like it's 1932‏ @RamaXMustGo 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu @UpshotNYT

        When did the first wave stop? Because I don’t think it did.

        1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
      3. will‏ @WNeilrlw12 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @RamaXMustGo @youyanggu @UpshotNYT

        Oh SNAP!!!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. John D.‏ @FriendlessTwit 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu @UpshotNYT

        There's so much noise about this on Twitter, so I'll ask it here. Is it a good or bad thing that there are so many more infections than are being reported?

        3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Mulling Mueller‏ @MullingMueller 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @FriendlessTwit @youyanggu @UpshotNYT

        It's a bad thing for containment A good thing for those people since they don't face severe illness

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Anthony Powell‏ @thetrizzles 2 Jul 2020
        Replying to @youyanggu

        With infections potentially exceeding April levels, why does the model project significantly fewer daily deaths in August than there were in April (you have deaths growing to the 700s in August vs over 2000 in April)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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