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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 23 Jun 2020

      US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 775 Yesterday: 284 One week ago (6/17): 713 Newly reported cases T: 33K Y: 27K 6/17: 24K Newly reported tests T: 511K Y: 465K 6/17: 467K Positive test rate T: 6.4% Y: 5.8% 6/17: 5.1%

      98 replies 652 retweets 1,323 likes
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    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 23 Jun 2020

      Just no good news here at all. Deaths are up week-over-week, which hasn't been happening much lately. Most cases since May 1, with a big week-over-week increase. And highest positive test rate since May 16, so this surge in cases is NOT just a reflection of more testing.

      45 replies 564 retweets 1,607 likes
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      Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 23 Jun 2020
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      To put the increase in deaths in context, Delaware added 69 deaths today: "The revision came from identifying 67 deaths dating back to April." So if you take out those 67 deaths, the week-over-week deaths have not changed.https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavirus/huge-jump-in-covid-deaths-after-state-review-of-data/ …

      2:53 PM - 23 Jun 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 84 Likes
      • Semblance Nancy Thomas Gnau Sheree Swanson Bennett Herbert Robert Auers J Delaware COVID19 Tweet Aggregator Revel
      16 replies 12 retweets 84 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Pirate Captain‏ @Pirate__Captain 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          That’s good news, but the positive test rate is still jumping

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Mike Lani (My Personal Weatherman)‏ @MikeLani7 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          Thanks! That shows why it's always important to delve deeper into the data.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Timothy‏ @TimothyBuffett 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          Love this! Context has been the entire thing missing the whole time. "Information without context is falsely empowering"

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Lakshya Jain‏ @lxeagle17 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          Interesting, thanks for clarifying! What do you make about the increased test positive rate?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          Thanks. Still a lack of decrease. I am afraid we have reached the local minimum.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Peter Walker‏ @PeterJ_Walker 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          In the hotspot states, deaths are indeed on the rise. Arizona example belowpic.twitter.com/GAo5NyR82E

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        2. Sam Seljan‏ @sseljan 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @youyanggu @NateSilver538

          Hasn’t that been happening a lot in less noticeable ways every day for months?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 23 Jun 2020
          Replying to @sseljan @NateSilver538

          I agree, though I look at these numbers daily and I can say that a death report that's 5x higher than the previous peak is extremely rare. So it's important to add some context to the numbers. I do expect deaths to increase over the next few weeks though. Just not today.

          0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
        4. End of conversation

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