US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:
Newly reported deaths
Today: 630
Yesterday: 648
One week ago (6/13): 695
Newly reported cases
T: 32K
Y: 31K
6/13: 25K
Newly reported tests
T: 584K
Y: 579K
6/13: 520K
Positive test rate
T: 5.5%
Y: 5.4%
6/13: 4.9%
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Most cases in a day since May 1. In better news, this was a record day for tests. But, note that the positive test rate is ticking UP, not down. So while tests are increasing, cases are increasing faster.
46 replies 232 retweets 881 likesShow this thread -
Deaths continue to fall, but not clear how sustainable that is.
@youyanggu, whose model has been accurate, estimates the IFR is in the midst of falling from 1.0% of symptomatic infections at the start of the pandemic to 0.5%. Good news, but it could be offset by more infections.48 replies 52 retweets 337 likesShow this thread -
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Replying to @econstatsnerd @NateSilver538
We use a 1% IFR for the UK for March and April. But that's due to a large proportion of care home deaths that skews the data. The same is true for the US and Canada. At one point 85% of Quebec's deaths are from care homes. Mortality rate for 80+ is over 10%, I believe.
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WSJ estimates that close to half of all US deaths are from care homes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-in-u-s-nursing-long-term-care-facilities-top-50-000-11592306919 … I don't see that same ratio holding over the next few months, hence the lower IFR.
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