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youyanggu's profile
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

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Youyang Gu

@youyanggu

Data Scientist. Creator of http://covid19-projections.com  and http://yolostocks.live . Presenter of unbiased takes. Realist. @MIT '15.

New York, NY
youyanggu.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Jun 2020

      US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 630 Yesterday: 648 One week ago (6/13): 695 Newly reported cases T: 32K Y: 31K 6/13: 25K Newly reported tests T: 584K Y: 579K 6/13: 520K Positive test rate T: 5.5% Y: 5.4% 6/13: 4.9%

      35 replies 152 retweets 474 likes
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    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Jun 2020

      Most cases in a day since May 1. In better news, this was a record day for tests. But, note that the positive test rate is ticking UP, not down. So while tests are increasing, cases are increasing faster.

      46 replies 232 retweets 881 likes
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    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 20 Jun 2020

      Deaths continue to fall, but not clear how sustainable that is. @youyanggu, whose model has been accurate, estimates the IFR is in the midst of falling from 1.0% of symptomatic infections at the start of the pandemic to 0.5%. Good news, but it could be offset by more infections.

      48 replies 52 retweets 337 likes
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    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 Jun 2020
      Replying to @econstatsnerd @NateSilver538

      We use a 1% IFR for the UK for March and April. But that's due to a large proportion of care home deaths that skews the data. The same is true for the US and Canada. At one point 85% of Quebec's deaths are from care homes. Mortality rate for 80+ is over 10%, I believe.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 Jun 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu @econstatsnerd @NateSilver538

      WSJ estimates that close to half of all US deaths are from care homes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-in-u-s-nursing-long-term-care-facilities-top-50-000-11592306919 … I don't see that same ratio holding over the next few months, hence the lower IFR.

      3:10 PM - 20 Jun 2020
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